Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
151 PM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...Spring Flood Potential is near normal...

The Spring flood potential is near normal across southern New England.
The flood threat from ice jams is over for the season.

The following web site has a map depicting the freshwater flood
potential outlook...
http://www.weather.gov/nerfc/springfloodpotential.

This is the ninth winter/spring flood potential outlook of the 2018
season. This outlook is based on current and forecast
hydrometeorological conditions. This includes snow cover and snow
water equivalent, stream and river levels and the amount of ice
coverage, recent precipitation and temperatures, and expected
temperatures and precipitation over the next two weeks.

...Recent Precipitation and Temperatures...

The past 2 weeks, from March 30 thru April 12, brought below normal
precipitation to the area. Liquid equivalent precipitation ranged
from 1 to 1.75 inches. This precipitation was 0.5 to 1.5 inches
below normal. Temperatures averaged 2 to 4 degrees below normal
along eastern MA and southern RI, and 4 to 6 degrees below normal
across the remainder of southern New England.

...Observed snow depths and water equivalents...

Snow depth was zero across the vast majority of southern New
England. The exception was across some of the highest terrain of the
east slopes of the Berkshires, where a patchy snow pack of up to a
few inches in depth was reported. Water equivalent was up to an
inch. This was near normal for mid April.

There was still some snow pack that remained across the headwaters
of the Connecticut River, with water equivalent of up to a few
inches. This was across the higher terrain of Vermont and
northern New Hampshire. This is normal for mid April.

...River and Ice Conditions...

Rivers and streams were running normal to below normal across the
region.

River ice was no longer a concern for this season, and the flood
threat due to ice jams is over for the season.

...Soil Moisture Conditions...

Soil moisture was near normal for this time of year. The ground was
thawed.

...Temperature and Precipitation Outlook...

The overall weather pattern is expected to be active. Spot showers
are possible today with a brief period of warmth. A back door
cold front will push through the area during Saturday, bringing an
end to that warmth as temperatures fall down into the 40s.
Showers and drizzle will occur behind the front. Sunday will be
very chilly, with rain likely and even the possibility of some
wintry precipitation. A strong frontal system will bring rain,
possibly locally heavy at times, during Monday. Near normal
temperatures are then expected thru the remainder of the workweek,
with some additional chances for rain.

The week 2 outlook from the Climate Prediction Center, for April 20-
26, calls for below normal temperatures and above normal
precipitation.

...Summary...

The freshwater flood potential is near normal. Below normal rainfall
has allowed rivers and streams to remain at normal to below normal
levels. With the exception of far northwest MA, the ground was bare
over southern New England. However, a snowpack did remain in place
across the higher terrain in the Connecticut River Headwaters of
northern New England. Some melting of this snowpack occurs today,
then colder air follows which will limit melt during this
weekend.

Rainfall during Sunday across western MA and central CT, and across
the Connecticut River watershed on Monday, could produce elevated
levels on the lower Connecticut River during early next week. At
this time flooding is not anticipated, however the lower
Connecticut River could reach Action Stage at some River Forecast
Points during early next week. Those with interests on the lower
Connecticut River should monitor the latest forecasts. It should
be noted that some minor flooding on the lower Connecticut River
during the spring is normal.

The flood threat due to ice jams is over for the season.

Unless conditions substantially change, this will be the final
Winter/Spring Flood Outlook issued by NWS Taunton for the season.
Note that normal hydrologic conditions for April can include minor
flooding of some area rivers and streams.

Keep in mind that heavy rain can cause flooding any time of the
year. Those with interests along rivers and streams should check the
Hazardous Weather Outlook, which highlights any potential flood
events over the next 7 days. Go to https://weather.gov/boston and
click on the option Current Hazards, then click on Local Outlook.

$$

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