Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FGUS71 KCLE 151949

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service CLEVELAND OH
349 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018


This is the fifth winter flood potential outlook of the winter
season. Flood outlooks are issued every two weeks in the winter
and spring to highlight any risks for significant flooding. The
outlooks are based on the basin and forecast conditions. This
includes snow cover and water equivalent, creek and river levels
and their extent of ice coverage, along with the expected
conditions during the next two weeks.

Based on current conditions and weather forecasts for the next two
weeks, the risk of flooding is near normal. The recent cold and
dry spell across the region has allowed area reservoirs and rivers
to discharge the excessive runoff that occurred towards the end
of February. The ground conditions are undergoing the winter to
spring thaw with ground water levels again near normal. The
forecast for the next week continues with a colder and drier
weather pattern with airmasses originating over Canada. By the end
of the month there is the potential for the transition back to
normal or even warmer conditions with increased chances of rain.

The antecedent conditions that contribute to flood risk are stored
water in the snowpack, extent of river ice, and status of area
streamflows. At the time of this issuance, area rivers and creeks
were running near normal due to a recent dry period. The area
snowpack was almost entirely isolated to the snowbelt with only
spotty snow cover elsewhere. In the higher terrain of the
snowbelt, stored water in the snowpack was between one to two
inches. Ice was not present on the rivers or the mouths of the
rivers on Lake Erie. Reservoir and ground water levels are near
normal. Soil temperatures 4 inches deep ranged from 33F where
snow was present, to 35F in the southwestern counties.

The following is a summary of the conditions by basin with
measurable snowpack as of Thursday morning, February 15, 2018:

.SNOW COVER..........1 to 2 feet
.WATER EQUIVALENT....1 to 2 inches
.CREEK FLOWS.........Near normal
.CREEK ICE...........None
.GROUND STATE........Snow Covered

.SNOW COVER..........4 to 12 inches
.WATER EQUIVALENT....0.1 to 1 inches
.RIVER FLOWS.........Near normal
.RIVER ICE...........None
.GROUND STATE........Snow Covered

The weather pattern over the next few weeks will favor below
normal temperatures and below normal rainfall. The 8-10 day
outlooks suggest a continuation of cold canadian airmasses
positioned over the Great Lakes and northeast U.S.. After that
the jet pattern becomes more typical for this time of year with
varying troughs and ridges every few days. What snowpack remains
in the last week of March will be expected to gradually melt off
as the daylight hours and sun angles increase. At this time there
are no strong signals of a significant rain maker, however we are
approaching the time of year when the severe weather in the plains
become active and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico moves into the
Great Lakes.

Cool and dry conditions in March will transition by the end of the
month will transition into a more seasonable pattern by the end of
the month. Antecedent conditions do not suggest a heightened risk
of flooding as we enter the climatological wet season.

Real time river information and probabilistic forecast for
specific  locations along rivers across the region can be found
on the internet at www.weather.gov/cle. Since conditions can
change, please refer to the latest flood watches, warnings, and
statements for additional information.on the basin and forecast
conditions. This includes snow cover and water equivalent, creek
and river levels and the amount of ice on them, along with the
expected conditions during the next two weeks.



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