Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
833 AM CST Thu Mar 1 2018

...Spring Flood Potential Outlook for eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas...
...Flood risk is average for eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas...

The potential for flood conditions this spring in eastern Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas is near normal. Flooding in eastern Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas usually occurs in response to specific precipitation
events. However, the Arkansas River may flood in response to more widespread
upstream conditions. There are currently no indications of extreme hydrologic
conditions to alter the flood potential for the area.

For much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, precipitation,
soil moisture content, and streamflow conditions are well above normal
at this time due to recent heavy rain. A large portion of eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas southeast of Interstate 44 has received
125 percent to over 150 percent of the average rainfall during the last
90 days.

Several U.S. Army Corps of Engineers projects in far eastern Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas are currently well into their flood pools due
to the recent heavy rainfall. However, projects in the upper Arkansas
basin, including the Verdigris River basin, were near the top of their
conservation pools and currently have near 100 percent of available
flood storage.

According to the U.S. Geological Survey, stream and river discharges
in the lower Grand-Neosho, upper White, lower Arkansas, and lower
Red River basins were much above normal for this time of year.
The upper Arkansas basin, including the Verdigris River basin, was
primarily at near normal streamflow conditions.

The February 15, 2018 Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Spring Outlook
(March-April-May) calls for an enhanced chance for above normal temperatures
and an equal chance for above, near, and below median precipitation across
all of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

According to the February 27, 2018 U.S. Drought Monitor, severe drought
continued over eastern Kay and northwest Osage Counties, with moderate
drought over portions of Pawnee, Osage, Washington, Creek, and Nowata Counties
in northeast Oklahoma. The CPC Seasonal Drought Outlook valid February
15-May 31, 2018 indicates drought will remain but conditions should improve,
with some drought removal likely.

For the latest river stage information, forecasts, and warnings, please
visit our website at www.weather.gov/tulsa River stage and forecast
data can be obtained by selecting the Rivers and Lakes link.

$$



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