Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FNUS73 KBIS 231320
FWSBIS

Spot Forecast for Green Ash...USFWS
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
820 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 CDT on May 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Becoming mostly cloudy today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected this morning near the burn area. Additional rain showers
and thunderstorms may redevelop through the afternoon and evening.
A few thunderstorms could be strong to severe. A high temperature in the
mid to upper 70s is forecast. Humidity will be high, only falling to
around 48 percent this afternoon. Southeast winds to 15 mph
are expected late this morning through the afternoon.
Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and
                    thunderstorms.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 42 percent.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................3 increasing to 4 late in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 78.
Min humidity........46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds to 15 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......2500-3400 ft AGL increasing to 3600-5000 ft AGL
                    late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 18 to 23 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (38400 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
                    (68600 knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 (very low).

TIME (CDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........86  89  84  84  78  61
Weather cov.....SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT NUM
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT NUM
CWR.............0   30  30  30  40  40
Chc of pcpn (%).30  30  40  40  50  60
LAL.............3   3   3   3   3   4
Temp............77  78  78  78  78  78
RH..............52  50  48  46  47  50
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..15  15  15  14  13  13
20 FT wind gust.19  20  19  19  18  17
Mix hgt (kft)...2.5 2.7 3.4 5.0 4.2 3.6
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.18  18  20  23  22  22
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3
SDspl kt-ft/100038  43  57  99  79  69

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and
                    thunderstorms in the evening, then isolated
                    showers and thunderstorms after midnight.
CWR.................42 percent increasing to 52 percent late in the
                    evening, then decreasing to 0 percent after
                    midnight.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................3 decreasing to 2 after midnight, then
                    decreasing to 1 after midnight.
Min temperature.....Around 57.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 10 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......2500-4100 ft AGL decreasing to 300-1500 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Southeast 13 to 22 mph shifting to the south 8
                    to 15 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good to excellent (35900-77000 knot-ft)
                    decreasing to poor to fair (2300-16600 knot-ft)
                    in the late evening and overnight.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........64  43  70  61  54  51  51  53  56  59  62  65
Weather cov.....SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT ISO ISO
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT ISO ISO
CWR.............40  40  40  40  50  50  50  0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).50  40  30  30  30  30  20  20  10  10  10  10
LAL.............3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   1   1   1   1
Temp............77  76  73  69  66  63  62  61  61  60  59  58
RH..............53  56  60  70  79  86  89  92  92  92  93  95
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..12  12  11  9   8   7   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.14  14  14  12  11  10  8   7   7   7   7   8
Mix hgt (kft)...4.1 3.7 2.5 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S
Transp wind spd.22  20  16  13  9   8   8   8   9   10  13  15
Haines index....4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
SDspl kt-ft/100077  64  36  17  4   3   3   2   3   3   3   4

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the morning. Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 23 percent in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................1 increasing to 2 in the morning, then
                    decreasing to 1 late in the morning increasing
                    to 2 early in the afternoon increasing to 3.
Max temperature.....Around 79.
Min humidity........39 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......400-2200 ft AGL increasing to 5600-7400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 9 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (4400-37800 knot-ft) increasing to
                    good to excellent (56300-96500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 OR (very low) to (moderate).

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........65        46        48        65
Weather cov.....          S CHC     S CHC     CHANCE
Weather type....NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........          S CHC     S CHC     CHANCE
CWR.............0         0         0         20
Chc of pcpn (%).10        20        20        40
LAL.............1         2         1         2
Temp............57        65        76        79
RH..............96        81        52        42
20 FT wind......SE 6G9    S 7       SW 8      SW 9G10
Mix hgt (ft)....400       1500      4400      6800
Transport wind..S 16      SW 12     SW 10     SW 14
Haines index....3         4         4         3
SDspl kt-ft/10005         15        38        83

$$
Forecaster...AYD
Requested by...Calvin
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1810539.0/BIS
.DELDT 05/23/18
.EMAIL calvin_moldenhauer@fws.gov


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