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000
FNUS73 KBIS 251019
FWSBIS

Spot Forecast for Hb-29/30/31...USFWS
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
519 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on April 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

An upper level ridge of high pressure will push east across North
Dakota today, with an active weather pattern developing tonight
and lasting through much of the weekend. Across the prescribed
burn area this afternoon, a frontal boundary will remain to the
west through the afternoon hours, maintaining a southerly wind
with a few gusts to near 20 mph. This frontal boundary will slowly
move east tonight into Friday, when winds will transition to more
northeasterly during the day Friday. Rain showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm or two will become likely tonight through the day
Friday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 74.
Min humidity........33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 12 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......7300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 16 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (21200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (112300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........39  26  37  59  57  56  57  55
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............56  60  64  68  70  72  73  73
RH..............55  49  43  39  36  34  33  33
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..13  12  13  13  13  13  13  13
20 FT wind gust.18  15  17  18  18  18  18  17
Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 1.8 2.3 3.3 4.5 5.8 7.0 7.3
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.17  17  17  18  20  18  18  16
Haines index....6   6   6   6   6   5   5   5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..21  26  34  52  76  93  112 102

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers in the
                    evening. Chance of thunderstorms through the
                    night. Rain showers likely overnight.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 64 percent.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1900, then 2.
Min temperature.....Around 48.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 to 12 mph becoming light. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near any thunderstorm.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 21 mph decreasing to around 10 mph
                    overnight, then shifting to the east-southeast
                    around 10 mph after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (103400 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (5200 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........54     65     65     74     63     59
Weather cov.....       S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........       S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
CWR.............0      0      0      0      50     60
Chc of pcpn (%).10     20     30     30     50     70
LAL.............1      2      3      3      3      2
Temp............73     67     59     56     54     50
RH..............33     47     69     86     93     100
20 ft wind......S 12   S 12   S 11   S 10   S 10   S 7
20 ft wind gust.17     15     14     14     14     10
Mix hgt (ft)....8000   800    500    800    600    600
Transport wind..S 15   S 12   S 16   S 18   S 10   SE 12
Haines index....5      5      4      3      3      3
Dispr kt-ft/1K..103    8      8      13     6      6

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely with a slight
                    chance of thunderstorms through the day.
CWR.................65 percent.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................2 until 1300, then 1.
Max temperature.....Around 64.
Min humidity........57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 6 mph shifting to the
                    northeast 7 to 16 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the morning.
Mixing height.......4600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 9 to 10 mph increasing to 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (106100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........60        57        58        69
Weather cov.....LIKELY    CHANCE    CHANCE    LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR    RAIN      RAIN      RAIN
Tstm cov........S CHC     S CHC     S CHC
CWR.............65        30        30        60
Chc of pcpn (%).70        40        40        70
LAL.............2         2         2         1
Temp............49        52        60        63
RH..............100       100       74        60
20 FT wind......E 6G9     N 8G12    NE 10G17  NE 15G21
Mix hgt (ft)....500       1000      3000      4300
Transport wind..E 10      NE 9      N 22      NE 25
Haines index....3         3         3         4
Dispr kt-ft/1K..4         8         56        94

$$
Forecaster...HEINERT
Requested by...Calvin
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412360.0/BIS
.DELDT 04/25/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL calvin_moldenhauer@fws.gov