Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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599
FNUS71 KCTP 181415
FWSCTP

Spot Forecast for FTIG A-17...PA Army National Guard
National Weather Service State College PA
1015 AM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on April 18.

If conditions become unrepresentative...
contact the National Weather Service in State College.

.DISCUSSION...
A weak ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will
slide east across the District today. A rather compact, but
potent surface low and upper level trough will move east from
the Ohio Valley, with the surface low likely crossing
Southern Pennsylvania tonight and early Thursday.

For today, expect dry, breezy and continued chilly conditions.

Tonight, periods of rain or showers will occur across much of
Central and Southern Pennsylvania, while a mixture of rain and wet
snow falls throughout the valleys of northern PA. A few inches of
snow will accumulate at higher elevations along the Pennsylvania,
New York border late tonight and Thursday morning.

Quite strong and gusty west to northwest winds will impact
the southern half of the Commonwealth beginning during the
early to mid morning hours Thursday.

Wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph will be common near and to the south
of the Route 22/322 corridor, while lighter winds will be found
north of Interstate 80.

Blustery northwest winds and unseasonably cold temperatures
will persist Thursday night and Friday morning with occasional
rain and snow showers in the valleys, and snow showers with
light accumulation across the mountains of Northern and
Western PA.


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent), then becoming
                    sunny (15-25 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 58.
Min humidity........32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds, becoming west 6 to 9
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......1200-2900 ft AGL, increasing to 3500-4300 ft
                    AGL in the late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 18 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4...or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........66  58  49  39  30  25  19  14
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............40  43  45  48  51  53  56  55
RH..............62  53  49  42  37  36  32  35
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..5   7   7   6   6   6   6   5
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  15  15  15  10
Mix hgt (kft)...3.5 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.3 3.9
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.17  16  15  14  13  13  13  12
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent), then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain likely in
                    the late evening and overnight. A chance of
                    rain late.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 44.
Max humidity........79 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds.
Mixing height.......1500-2800 ft AGL, decreasing to 100-900 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Transport winds.....South 1 to 8 mph, becoming southeast 1 to 9 mph
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........2 to 4...or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........32  50  69  72  75  78  81  84  87  86  84  82
Weather cov.....                LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC
Weather type....                RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............54  51  49  48  46  45  45  45  45  45  45  45
RH..............40  46  54  58  65  70  73  76  79  79  79  79
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  S   E   E   E   E   E   E   S   S
20 FT wind spd..3   2   1   1   2   2   2   3   3   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.10  5               5   5   10  10  10  5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...2.8 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9
Transp wind dir.W   SW  SW  S   SE  E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.8   5   1   1   1   3   6   8   9   8   6   5
Haines index....4   4   4   4   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). A chance of rain
                    early in the morning, then a chance of showers
                    early in the morning.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 52.
Min humidity........46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds, becoming northwest 9
                    to 14 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.
Mixing height.......800-2200 ft AGL, increasing to 5700-6400 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 13 mph, increasing to west 18 to
                    24 mph late in the morning, then increasing to
                    northwest 29 to 33 mph in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 4...or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........89  87  85  85  85  85  85  85  85  85  84  75
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RN  RN  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............45  45  45  46  48  49  50  51  51  51  52  50
RH..............79  79  79  73  65  63  56  52  50  50  46  50
20 FT wind dir..S   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..3   5   6   7   9   10  10  11  10  10  10  10
20 FT wind gust.5       10  15  20  25  30  30  35  35  35  30
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 0.9 1.0 1.6 2.2 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.7 4.7 5.7 6.4
Transp wind dir.S   S   SW  SW  W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.5   6   8   13  18  24  29  31  33  33  33  32
Haines index....2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4

$$
Forecaster...WFO-CTP/Gartner
Requested by...Nick Hoffman
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1806944.0/CTP
.EMAIL nichoffman@pa.gov



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