Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FNUS73 KGRR 160818
FWSGRR

Spot Forecast for SER RX...USDA FOREST SERVICE
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
418 AM EDT Wed May 16 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EDT on May 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (616) 949-5150, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will dominate the weather today. Winds will shift today
from the East this morning, to Southwest by afternoon, and eventually
West later this afternoon. A weak front will move through tonight.
It will not have any rain with it. It will bring slightly cooler
temperatures and a East/Northeast wind for Thursday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Temperature.........68 at ignition...Max 76.
RH..................47 percent at ignition...Min 35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southwest at 4 to 7 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise becoming West late 5 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 4000
                    ft AGL.
Mixing winds........West 5 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....200 /fair/ at ignition. Max...400 /good/.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (EDT)      11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM   7 PM   9 PM
Sky (%).........15     12     9      8      7      7
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............68     74     75     76     73     66
RH..............57     43     37     35     40     54
20 ft wind......SW 6   SW 7   W 7    W 8    W 7    W 5
20 ft wind gust.10     11     10
Mix hgt (ft)....2000   3000   3500   4000   1700   300
Haines index....4      5      5      5      5      5
Smoke Dispersal 200    300    350    400    170    0

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Temperature.........Min 51.
RH..................Max 89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 6 mph until midnight
                    becoming light, then becoming east up to 5 mph
                    overnight.
Mixing height.......300-800 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Variable to 5 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....0 (poor).
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Temperature.........Max 76.
RH..................Min 35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 6 to 11 mph becoming Northeast.
Mixing height.......3600-4100 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........East 5 to 10 mph increasing to 12 to 14 mph
                    late in the day.
Smoke dispersal.....400 (good).
Haines Index........3 to 4 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Jeruzal
Requested by...Kevin Reese
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1810043.0/GRR
.EMAIL Kevinreese@fs.fs.us



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