Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FNUS72 KILM 231357
FWSILM

Spot Forecast for Singletary Lake...NC State Parks
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
957 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on May 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.

.DISCUSSION...
A weak cold front approaching from the north will produce a greater
coverage of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and on Thursday.
The front will dissipate by Friday. Low pressure developing across the
Gulf of Mexico will bring tropical moisture northward and help fuel
a higher probability of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain
across the eastern Carolinas Sunday and into early next week.

Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable.

Fog potential for tonight...Low.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the morning,
                    then chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
                    late morning and early afternoon. Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely early in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 15. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Max Mixing Hgt......3900 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 15 mph.
Max Vent Rate.......46230 mph-ft.
Max LVORI...........9.
Max ADI.............32.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........64  67  70  74  77  77  77  77
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
Temp............77  79  81  83  84  84  83  82
RH..............79  72  68  65  63  62  62  64
CHC Pcpn (%)....30  40  40  50  60  60  60  60
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   SW  SW  W   W
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.                7   7
Mix hgt (kft)...1.8 2.3 2.8 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 3.3
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.9   12  10  10  10  10  12  13
Haines Index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VR MPH-FT*1000..17  25  31  34  35  40  46  42
Stability.......D   D   D   D   D   D   D   D
LVORI...........3   3   3   2   2   2   1   1
ADI.............18  23  25  26  26  29  32  32
Aparnt Tmp (F)..77  82  85  87  88  88  87  86
Sfc pres (in)...000 000 000 000 994 994 994 994

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely early in the evening, then
                    chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 69.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 5 mph early in the
                    evening becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Min Mixing Hgt......300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 13 mph shifting to the west
                    around 3 mph after midnight.
Min Vent Rate.......804 mph-ft.
Max LVORI...........10.
Min ADI.............1.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........76  76  76  75  74  73  72  71  70  69  66  63
Weather cov.....LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Temp............81  79  77  76  74  73  72  71  70  69  69  69
RH..............67  71  78  82  86  89  91  93  95  98  100 100
CHC Pcpn (%)....60  50  50  50  50  50  50  50  50  50  50  50
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W
20 FT wind spd..5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.
Mix hgt (kft)...2.7 2.1 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W
Transp wind spd.13  13  13  10  7   5   5   3   3   3   3   3
Haines Index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VR MPH-FT*1000..36  28  18  9   5   2   1   1   1   1   1   1
Stability.......D   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   F   F   F   F
LVORI...........3   3   4   4   5   6   6   6   8   10  10  10
ADI.............30  9   8   7   5   3   3   3   2   2   2   1
Aparnt Tmp (F)..84  82  77  76  74  73  72  71  70  69  69  69
Sfc pres (in)...994 994 997 997 997 997 997 997 998 998 998 998

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east around 5 mph late in
                    the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms.
Max Mixing Hgt......4400 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northwest 2 to 3 mph shifting to the east 3 to
                    6 mph in the afternoon.
Max Vent Rate.......19895 mph-ft.
Max LVORI...........10.
Max ADI.............14.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........60     54     46     90     71     68
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Temp............69     71     76     81     85     85
RH..............100    95     81     67     59     56
CHC Pcpn (%)....40     40     40     40     40     40
20 ft wind......W 3    N 2    NE 3   NE 4   E 4    E 5
20 ft wind gust.
Mix hgt (ft)....300    500    1100   2200   3600   4400
Transport wind..W 2    N 2    NW 2   N 3    E 3    E 5
Haines Index....3      3      3      3      3      3
VR MPH-FT*1000..1      1      3      6      13     18
Stability.......F      C      B      D      D      D
LVORI...........10     7      5      3      2      2
ADI.............1      2      4      6      9      12
Aparnt Tmp (F)..69     71     76     85     89     88
Sfc pres (in)...29.98  30.04  30.04  30.04  30.03  30.03

$$
Forecaster...Hawkins
Requested by...James Sasser
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1810547.0/ILM
.DELDT 05/23/18
.EMAIL jamie.sasser@ncparks.gov



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