Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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868
FNUS71 KLWX 151116
FWSLWX

Spot Forecast for Tye River Fire...USFS
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
716 AM EDT Tue May 15 2018

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0800 EDT on May 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

A front will remain nearly stationary across the area through the
rest of the week keeping unsettled conditions with a risk of
daily showers and thunderstorms. A subtropical high pressure
system anchored over the western Atlantic will continue to pump in
warm and humid air into the region south of the frontal boundary.
Strong thunderstorms and heavy rainfall will be possible.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Isolated
                    thunderstorms early in the morning. Scattered
                    showers through the day. Scattered
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................20 percent increasing to 30 percent late in the
                    morning, then increasing to 50 percent early in
                    the afternoon decreasing to 40 percent late in
                    the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 79.
Min humidity........58 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......300-1100 ft AGL increasing to 2300-4000 ft AGL
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 6 to 15 mph increasing to 17 to 20
                    mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (1300-41900 knot-ft) increasing to
                    good to excellent (41200-67700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........47     54     62     68     69
WEATHER COV.....ISOLTD ISOLTD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
CWR.............20     20     30     50     50
TEMP............68     72     76     78     78
RH..............78     73     66     62     60
20 FT WIND......W 8    SW 7   SW 7   SW 9   SW 11
20 FT WIND GUST.11     11     11     13     17
MIX HGT (FT)....300    2300   3800   4000   3100
MIXNG WIND......SW 6   SW 12  SW 17  SW 20  SW 18
VRATE KT-FT/10001      23     57     68     49

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Scattered
                    thunderstorms in the evening. Scattered showers
                    through the night. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms late in the evening. Patchy fog
                    late in the evening.
CWR.................40 percent decreasing to 30 percent early in
                    the evening.
Min temperature.....Around 63.
Max humidity........84 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms late in the evening.
Mixing height.......1300-2700 ft AGL decreasing to 500-700 ft AGL
                    late in the evening.
Transport winds.....Southwest 18 to 26 mph decreasing to 6 to 14
                    mph late in the evening, then shifting to the
                    east 0 to 2 mph early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to excellent (20500-60300 knot-ft)
                    decreasing to poor (0 knot-ft) late in the
                    evening.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........71     72     79     89     97     89
WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
CWR.............40     30     30     30     30     30
TEMP............77     73     70     68     67     65
RH..............58     64     68     73     78     81
20 FT WIND......SW 12  SW 11  SW 9   SW 8   SW 7   SW 6
20 FT WIND GUST.17     14     12     10     8      8
MIX HGT (FT)....2600   2600   1300   500    600    600
MIXNG WIND......SW 22  SW 26  SW 18  SW 12  SW 8   SE 2
VRATE KT-FT/100049     60     21     5      4      1

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    early in the morning, then showers likely and
                    chance of thunderstorms early in the morning.
CWR.................30 percent increasing to 70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........73 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 6 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......800-2700 ft AGL increasing to 3300-3700 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 0 to 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (0-28500 knot-ft).

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........90     89     84     84     89     87
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
CWR.............30     60     60     60     70     70
TEMP............64     66     69     71     72     72
RH..............84     81     78     79     76     73
20 FT WIND......SW 6   SW 6   SW 5   SW 5   S 6    S 6
20 FT WIND GUST.8      7      6      6      7      10
MIX HGT (FT)....800    1100   1800   2700   3600   3600
MIXNG WIND......E 0    SE 3   S 5    S 6    S 7    SE 9
VRATE KT-FT/10000      3      7      14     22     29

$$
Forecaster...Witt
Requested by...Nick Jeros
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1809796.2/LWX



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