Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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097
FNUS74 KLZK 250931
FWSLZK

Spot Forecast for Alamo 11 CWD...USFS
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
431 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on April 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service Immediately.

.DISCUSSION...

A storm system will begin to spread showers over the region this
morning with showers becoming likely by noon. Showers are expected
to continue this evening before tapering off by morning. A
general half to three quarters of an inch of rain is expected.

.TODAY...

Temperature.........58 at ignition...Max 67.
RH..................81 percent at ignition...Min 62 percent.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Transport winds.....Southwest 3 to 10 mph shifting to the northwest
                    10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
Stability class.....C.
20 Foot Winds.......Winds north at 4 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Light winds becoming north around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms.
LVORI...............2 early in the morning.
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers in the morning. Isolated thunderstorms
                    through the day. Rain showers likely in the
                    afternoon.
Dispersion..........20 increasing to 32 late in the morning, then
                    increasing to 36 early in the afternoon
                    decreasing to 29 late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 3.
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming north around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 4200 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 4942 ft MSL.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
Temp............58  60  62  64  65  65  66  66  66
RH..............81  79  74  69  66  64  63  62  63
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5
Eye lvl wnd dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Eye lvl wnd spd.2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3
Eye lvl wnd gst.5   5   5
Transp wind dir.S   SW  SW  NW  N   NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.7   8   10  14  15  14  12  10  12
Chc of pcpn (%).30  30  30  70  70  70  70  70  70

.TONIGHT...

Temperature.........Min 50.
RH..................Max 87 percent.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Transport winds.....Northwest 13 to 22 mph increasing to 20 to 23
                    mph after midnight.
Stability class.....E.
20 Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
LVORI...............1.
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers in the evening. Isolated thunderstorms
                    through the night. Slight chance of rain
                    showers after midnight.
Dispersion..........35 decreasing to 10 early in the evening.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 1800 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 2491 ft MSL.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
Temp............65  64  61  59  58  57  56  55  54  53  53  52
RH..............65  68  73  76  79  79  80  81  82  83  84  85
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   6   7   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Eye lvl wnd dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Eye lvl wnd spd.4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Eye lvl wnd gst.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.13  15  16  18  20  21  22  23  23  22  21  20
Chc of pcpn (%).70  70  70  70  70  70  50  50  50  50  50  50

.THURSDAY...

Temperature.........Max 70.
RH..................Min 55 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Transport winds.....North 13 to 21 mph.
Stability class.....B.
20 Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 7 mph.
LVORI...............1 early in the morning.
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
Dispersion..........37 increasing to 46 late in the morning, then
                    increasing to 52 late in the morning decreasing
                    to 40 late in the afternoon decreasing to 32.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 5600 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 6348 ft MSL.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............52  52  55  58  61  63  65  67  68  69  69  69
RH..............87  87  81  75  70  66  62  59  57  55  55  56
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Eye lvl wnd dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N
Eye lvl wnd spd.4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Eye lvl wnd gst.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.18  17  18  20  21  21  21  20  18  16  14  13
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  20  20  20  20  10  10  10  10  10  10

$$
Forecaster...J Goudsward
Requested by...Robert Kephart
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1807669.0/LZK
.EMAIL robertfkephart@fs.fed.us



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