Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FNUS72 KMHX 231235
FWSMHX

Spot Forecast for GOCR VC...Goose Creek State Park
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
835 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on April 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast, contact the National Weather
Service in Newport at (252)223-2328.

.DISCUSSION...
A slow moving, deepening low pressure system will move across
the southern Mid-Atlantic states today and Wednesday, bringing
widespread rain and wind. High pressure will briefly build in
before, another low pressure system moves through late in the
week.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers in the
                    afternoon. Chance of showers late in the
                    afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 10 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......Max 5400 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southeast 20 to 25 mph.
Vent Rate...........Max 141220 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 1.
ADI.................Max 83.
Haines index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.30 to 30.36 inHg.

TIME (EDT)         10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)............71  79  78  77  79  81  81  82
Weather cov........            SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC
Weather type.......            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov...........
Temp...............65  67  68  68  68  69  70  68
RH.................63  56  51  50  51  51  51  54
20 FT wind dir.....E   E   E   E   SE  SE  E   E
20 FT wind spd.....11  12  13  15  15  15  15  13
20 FT wind gust....18  18  23  23  23  23  23  23
Mix hgt (kft)......3.6 5.0 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4
Transp wind dir....SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd....22  25  26  26  25  25  25  25
LVORI..............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI................56  79  83  82  80  81  82  81
Haines index.......5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
VRate mph-ft/1000..77  126 141 139 135 136 137 135
Stability class....D   D   D   D   D   D   D   D

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Rain likely in the evening, then rain
                    and slight chance of thunderstorms after
                    midnight.
Min temperature.....Around 58.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph
                    early in the evening. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms after midnight.
Mixing height.......Min 800 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southeast 20 to 30 mph.
Vent Rate...........Min 18170 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 5.
ADI.................Min 22.
Haines index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.15 to 30.28 inHg.

TIME (EDT)         6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%)............87  91  94  97  97  97  98  99  100 100 100 100
Weather cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type.......RW  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov...........                                ISO ISO ISO SCH
Temp...............66  64  63  62  61  61  61  61  60  60  60  59
RH.................58  63  67  70  75  78  81  84  90  93  93  96
20 FT wind dir.....E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd.....13  13  12  12  12  13  13  13  13  13  15  15
20 FT wind gust....23  14  14  14  14  14  18  18  18  18  18  18
Mix hgt (kft)......5.0 4.4 3.8 3.2 2.7 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.8
Transp wind dir....E   E   E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd....24  23  22  21  21  22  24  26  29  28  26  24
LVORI..............1   1   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   5   5
ADI................74  31  29  28  28  29  27  30  26  25  23  22
Haines index.......5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   3
VRate mph-ft/1000..121 100 83  69  57  47  44  40  34  29  23  18
Stability class....D   D   D   D   D   D   D   D   D   D   D   D

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Rain showers and slight chance of
                    thunderstorms.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........75 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms until late
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......Max 3100 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southeast 20 to 25 mph.
Vent Rate...........Max 78200 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 5.
ADI.................Max 62.
Haines index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........29.92 to 30.14 inHg.

TIME (EDT)         6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%)............100    100    96     92     95     91
Weather cov........DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
Weather type.......RAIN   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov...........S CHC  ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
Temp...............58     60     64     67     68     68
RH.................100    90     82     77     75     77
20 ft wind.........E 17   SE 19  SE 19  SE 18  SE 18  SE 16
20 ft wind gust....23     23     23     23     23     18
Mix hgt (ft).......1000   1400   2500   3100   3100   2800
Transport wind.....SE 23  E 22   E 23   SE 25  SE 25  SE 23
LVORI..............5      4      3      3      3      3
ADI................21     35     51     61     61     53
Haines index.......3      3      2      2      3      3
VRate mph-ft/1000..22     31     59     77     78     64
Stability class....D      D      D      D      C      C

$$
Forecaster...Elardo
Requested by...Joseph Hawley
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1807429.0/MHX
.EMAIL joseph.hawley@ncparks.gov


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