Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FNUS74 KMOB 220113
FWSMOB

Spot Forecast for De Soto 7202...USDA Forest Service
National Weather Service Mobile AL
813 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 2100 CDT on April 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Southeast to south flow in the mixing layer is expected
overnight into Sunday. Increasing rain chances is expected Sunday, with
best chance beginning mid morning and lasting into the afternoon.

Fog potential and other remarks...Patchy light fog is possible overnight
especially in localities where winds become light.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers in the evening. Chance of showers after
                    midnight.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 62.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 6 mph early in the
                    evening becoming light, then becoming southeast
                    around 5 mph late in the night.
Mixing height.......4900 ft AGL decreasing to 800-2500 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...1494 meters AGL decreasing to 244-762 meters
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 7 to 12 mph.
Transport winds m/s.Southeast 3 to 5 meters/second.
Dispersion index....37 decreasing to 4, then increasing to 7.
LVORI...............5 increasing to 8.
Stability class.....4.

TIME (CDT)      9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
Sky (%).........80     85     88     89     91
Weather cov.....S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).20     20     40     40     40
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1
Temp............65     63     62     62     62
RH..............87     93     100    100    100
20 FT wind dir..SE     SE     SE     SE     SE
20 FT wind spd..2      2      3      4      5
20 FT wind gust.6      6      6      6      6
Mix hgt (ft)....900    900    800    900    900
Mix hgt (m).....270    270    240    270    270
Transp wind dir.SE     SE     SE     SE     SE
Transp wind spd.8      7      9      9      9
Trans wind dir..SE     SE     SE     SE     SE
Trans spd (m/s).4      3      4      4      4
Dispersion idx..4      4      6      7      7
LVORI...........5      6      7      7      8

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of thunderstorms
                    in the morning. Showers through the day.
                    Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 0700, then 1-8 strikes until
                    1000, then 9-15 strikes until 1300, then 16-25
                    strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........76 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......800-2100 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...244-640 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....South 9 to 18 mph increasing to 20 to 22 mph
                    early in the afternoon.
Transport winds m/s.South 4 to 8 meters/second increasing to 9 to
                    10 meters/second early in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....6 increasing to 51.
LVORI...............8 decreasing to 3.
Stability class.....3.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........92     92     94     96     94     87
Weather cov.....CHANCE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........       S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
Chc of pcpn (%).40     80     80     80     90     90
LAL.............1      2      3      3      4      4
Temp............62     64     67     71     73     73
RH..............100    97     90     81     76     79
20 FT wind dir..SE     SE     SE     S      S      S
20 FT wind spd..5      6      8      10     10     8
20 FT wind gust.7      10     11     14     14     10
Mix hgt (ft)....800    1000   1400   1900   2100   2100
Mix hgt (m).....240    300    430    580    640    640
Transp wind dir.SE     SE     S      S      S      S
Transp wind spd.9      10     14     17     21     22
Trans wind dir..SE     SE     S      S      S      S
Trans spd (m/s).4      4      6      8      9      10
Dispersion idx..6      15     24     37     47     50
LVORI...........8      5      4      3      3      3

.SUNDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Rain showers
                    with thunderstorms likely early in the evening,
                    then slight chance of thunderstorms early in
                    the evening. Chance of rain showers in the
                    evening.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
LAL.................16-25 strikes until 1900, then 1-8 strikes
                    until 2200, then No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 56.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 8 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......700-2100 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...213-640 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 16 mph.
Transport winds m/s.West 4 to 7 meters/second.
Dispersion index....36 decreasing to 3.
LVORI...............3 increasing to 8.
Stability class.....3.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........80     67     60     52     51     53
Weather cov.....DEFNTE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........LIKELY S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).90     30     30     30     10     10
LAL.............4      2      1      1      1      1
Temp............72     70     67     63     61     59
RH..............81     84     90     97     97     93
20 FT wind dir..S      S      S      SW     W      W
20 FT wind spd..7      6      4      2      2      2
20 FT wind gust.8
Mix hgt (ft)....2100   700    700    1100   1300   1300
Mix hgt (m).....640    210    210    340    400    400
Transp wind dir.S      SW     SW     W      W      W
Transp wind spd.16     10     8      9      10     8
Trans wind dir..S      SW     SW     W      W      W
Trans spd (m/s).7      4      4      4      4      4
Dispersion idx..36     9      7      5      4      4
LVORI...........3      5      6      7      7      7

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 74.
Min humidity........55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west around 5 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon, then becoming light
                    late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1000-2700 ft AGL increasing to 3200-4700 ft AGL
                    late in the morning.
Mixing height (m)...305-823 meters AGL increasing to 975-1433
                    meters AGL late in the morning.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 12 mph.
Transport winds m/s.West 4 to 5 meters/second.
Dispersion index....2 increasing to 52.
LVORI...............9 decreasing to 1.
Stability class.....2.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
Sky (%).........55           52           50
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE         NONE         NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10           0            10
LAL.............1            1            1
Temp............56           64           73
RH..............100          78           59
20 FT wind dir..W            W            W
20 FT wind spd..2            5            5
20 FT wind gust.4                         6
Mix hgt (ft)....1100         2700         4300
Mix hgt (m).....340          820          1310
Transp wind dir.W            W            W
Transp wind spd.8            12           12
Trans wind dir..W            W            W
Trans spd (m/s).4            5            5
Dispersion idx..3            36           50
LVORI...........9            3            1

$$
Forecaster...16
Requested by...Cliff Willis
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1806562.3/MOB
.DELDT 04/21/18
.EMAIL jayboykin@fs.fed.us



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