Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FNUS74 KOUN 231017
FWSOUN

Spot Forecast for Rhea...Oklahoma Forest Service
National Weather Service Norman OK
517 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Forecast is based on request time of 0600 CDT on April 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (405) 325-3816 if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
No significant changes to the forecast this morning. Winds will
shift from northwest to northeast today and to south overnight
tonight, but wind speeds will remain relatively light. The
nocturnal inversion tonight will set up very close to the ground
and smoke dispersal will once again be lacking overnight. A cold
front will move through the fire ground mid to late afternoon on
Tuesday shifting winds to northerly. Moderate north winds and
deeper mixing will allow better smoke dispersal on Tuesday night.

Storm chances increase Tuesday afternoon (20 percent east, 30
percent west) and Tuesday night (60 percent) before diminishing
Wednesday morning (20 percent chances between sunrise and noon).
Average rainfall amounts look to be one-half to two-thirds of an
inch, mainly overnight Tuesday night. But again the rainfall
amounts will be more variable than last time. The Storm Prediction
Center has introduced a marginal risk of severe storms to
southwest Oklahoma, but at the moment it appears that any severe
weather risk will remain well south of the fireground especially
as the cold front will be farther south keeping instability much
more limited over northwest Oklahoma.

Looking farther ahead, the forecast Red Flag Threat Index remains
low through Saturday. Winds will pick up from the south on Sunday
with warmer temperatures (upper 70s) and somewhat lower humidity
(30 to 35 percent) which could bring elevated RFTI values into the
area on Sunday afternoon.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........35 percent west to 40 percent east.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......200-1500 ft AGL, increasing to 6400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 5 to 8 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (1200-54200 knot-ft), increasing
                    to good (37700 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......200-1500 ft AGL, increasing to 6400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 5 to 8 mph.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........37     22     19     19     26     38
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............46     47     59     66     70     73
RH..............89     87     63     49     41     37
20 ft wind......NW 7   N 7    N 8    N 7    NE 6   NE 5
20 ft wind gust.10     10     10     10     7      6
Mix hgt (ft)....200    300    4200   5700   6400   6400
Transport wind..NW 7   N 7    N 13   NE 10  NE 7   N 6
VRate ktft/1000.1      27     47     59     57     49

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent), then becoming
                    clear (0-10 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 49.
Max humidity........90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 5 mph.
Mixing height.......6100-6400 ft AGL, decreasing to 0-100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 5 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (25000-39500 knot-ft) becoming poor
                    (0-400 knot-ft).
Mixing height.......6100-6400 ft AGL, decreasing to 0-100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 5 mph.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........38     28     3      3      6      6
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............72     68     59     55     52     50
RH..............38     48     67     79     87     86
20 ft wind......NE 5   E 5    E 6    E 6    SE 6   SE 5
20 ft wind gust.6      6      7      7      7      6
Mix hgt (ft)....6400   4400   100    BLW100 100    100
Transport wind..N 6    NW 1   SE 8   SE 8   SE 7   SE 6
VRate ktft/1000.40     26     12     0      0      0

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent), then becoming partly
                    sunny (65-75 percent). A slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 74.
Min humidity........40 to 45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......0-1300 ft AGL, increasing to 2200-3400 ft AGL
                    late in the morning, then increasing to
                    4300-5700 ft AGL in the afternoon, decreasing
                    to 3300 ft AGL late.
Transport winds.....East 5 to 8 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0-1500 knot-ft) becoming good
                    (30000-41700 knot-ft).
Mixing height.......0-1300 ft AGL, increasing to 2200-3400 ft AGL
                    late in the morning, then increasing to
                    4300-5700 ft AGL in the afternoon, decreasing
                    to 3300 ft AGL late.
Transport winds.....East 5 to 8 mph.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........6         30        51        50
Weather cov.....                              S CHC
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                              S CHC
Temp............50        60        70        73
RH..............86        66        48        43
20 FT wind......SE 5G6    SE 6G7    SE 8G10   E 6G7
Mix hgt (ft)....BLW100    1300      4600      5300
Transport wind..SE 5      SE 8      SE 8      E 2
VRate ktft/1000.0         21        41        40

$$
Forecaster...SPEHEGER
Requested by...David Greathouse
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1807364.0/OUN
.EMAIL david.greathouse@ncagr.gov


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