Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS02 KWNS 200429
SWODY2
SPC AC 200428

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms are possible across the Ohio Valley
region Monday. Strong storms are also possible across the southern
Rockies.

...OH Valley...

Despite a transient short-wave trough that will eject into the mid
MS Valley Monday afternoon, large-scale forcing for ascent is
expected to remain meager across the OH Valley during the day2
period. Even so, gradual moistening is expected ahead of this
feature and buoyancy should increase such that scattered convection
will develop across much of the OH Valley. Deep-layer flow will be
seasonally weak but likely adequate for a few robust storms capable
of generating gusty winds. Primary threat for damaging winds will be
with diurnally driven thunderstorms.

...Southern Rockies...

Weak mid-level height falls will spread into the southern Rockies
during the latter half of the period as a slow-moving upper low
drifts into the lower CO River Valley. In response to this feature,
low-level trajectories will become increasingly favorable for
moistening to surge deep into west TX and NM. While any notable
disturbance is not expected to affect this region, strong
boundary-layer heating and orographic influences should contribute
to robust convection may late afternoon. Veering wind profiles with
height suggest weak supercells are possible. Hail/wind are the
primary threats with this activity.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
Wind:      5%     - Marginal
Hail:      5%     - Marginal

..Darrow.. 05/20/2018

$$



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