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000
FXUS65 KABQ 190011 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
611 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A backdoor cold front across the eastern plains of NM is making
for cooler temperatures and breezy conditions this afternoon,
while central and western NM remain above normal. The cold front
will briefly move into the Rio Grande Valley Friday morning, but
a stronger surge will come early Saturday morning. Gusty east
canyon winds are forecast in the Rio Grande Valley Friday morning,
with stronger winds Saturday morning. Saturday will be the
coolest day across the eastern plains when daytime temperatures
are forecast to be 20-25 degrees below normal. A disturbance may
bring a round of rain with isolated thunder to north central and
eastern NM late Friday night through Saturday. Expect a renewed
warmup thereafter, but another back door cold front will impact
eastern NM going into the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 130 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Cirrus is drifting over the western and central parts of the state
in advance of a weak upstream upr level disturbance. Meanwhile, sfc
analysis depicts a frontal boundary draped over the eastern plains
with east-northeast gusty winds in its wake. This boundary will be
pushing westward this evening and overnight and will be responsible
for modest gap winds within the RGV, including both the ABQ and SAF
metro areas. Extensive stratus will develop across eastern NM, with
a risk for patchy fog. The latest HREF indicates a 30 pct chance of
fog from northern Lincoln to the southern end of the Sangres, with
higher probabilities of 30-80 percent along the northern extend of
the Sangres eastward into the Johnson and Bartlett Mesas. Given the
conditional nature and spotty coverage area, did not introduce into
the grids, but something to closely monitor. CAA will allow for low
temperatures to be five degrees below normal in the eastern plains
but an above normal, and slightly warmer, regime is expected in the
western and central zones due to cloud cover.

Gap winds weaken by mid/late Friday morning as the surface boundary
retreats back into the central highlands. Stratus will gradually go
on a brief vacation from west to east, with high temps still five or
so degrees below normal across the far east. Meanwhile, western and
central NM should experience relatively quiet weather conditions,
favoring gusty afternoon winds as slightly stronger winds aloft are
expected to mix down to the surface during peak heating. Fri night
suggests the reinforcing shot of easterly winds will invade the ern
plains with slightly stronger gap winds developing within the RGV,
with a more westward push of this boundary towards the Cont. Divide.
This may set the stage for light QPF on Saturday (discussed below).
Isentropic upglide will favor light pcpn across the eastern plains.
Models also suggest enough instability will be around to support a
few stray thunderstorms, but the most favored locations seems to be
in question (ern plains vs along the central mtn chain - the latter
option making the most sense). DPorter

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 130 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

East canyon/gap winds will continue into the middle/lower RGV and
Upper Tularosa Valley Saturday morning, but speeds are forecast
to remain below advisory criteria. A weak short wave trough will
move over Saturday, bringing weak isentropic upglide to the
eastern plains, but with limited moisture above the frontal layer.
The best chances for precipitation Saturday will be in the morning
hours near the TX border across the east central and southeast
plains where a rumble of thunder or two are possible. Patchy fog
is likely Saturday morning as well, especially in the usual
easterly upslope flow areas of the eastern highlands. The front is
modeled by the most recent NAM to make it west to near the
Continental Divide Saturday, which would bring cooler temperature
for the Albuquerque and Santa Fe Metros than what is currently
forecast. However, the latest NAM is notably more bullish on the
westward progress of the front relative to the rest of the model
suite. Saturday will be the coolest day overall this forecast
cycle, with highs across the eastern plains forecast to be 20-25
degrees below normal. Patchy fog may redevelop Saturday night into
Sunday morning across portions of eastern NM, but low forecast
confidence at this time. The front will hold on across eastern NM
Sunday in the wake of the departing shortwave trough, with
temperatures warming some but still forecast below normal. A more
significant warmup is forecast Mon/Tue with weak ridging and
rising pressure heights bringing above normal temperatures
areawide. However, another backdoor cold front will slide down the
eastern plains Tuesday, brining cooler temperatures going into
Wednesday. An upper level trough/low will approach Wednesday and
may move over as early as Thursday, bringing stronger winds and
the potential for thunderstorms across the east central and
southeast plains. `Tis the season!

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A moist backdoor front that banked up along the east slopes of the
Sangre de Cristo Mountains today, and still extends southward
from LVS to the Lincoln and Chaves County border, will surge
westward with sunset through gaps in the central mountain chain
producing a gusty east canyon wind in the central valley tonight
into early Friday morning from Santa Fe southward, including
Carrizozo. With low level convergence under an upper level trough
approaching from the west the potential exists for gusts to 35
knots at KABQ, but at this time models generally agree on winds
staying lighter than that. Moist easterly upslope flow on the
eastern plains is forecast to produce areas of MVFR and IFR
conditions in low clouds tonight mainly over northeast and east
central areas. There is a chance that low clouds will produce MVFR
conditions as far south and west as KROW from early to late
morning on Friday, but the chance was too low to include in the
00Z TAF. RH progs suggest a better chance that low clouds will
work their way through gaps in the central mountain chain over
KSAF toward sunrise on Friday. The low clouds should burn off
across central and east by early afternoon on Friday, but the low
level moisture will stay in place with another round of low
clouds likely along the east slopes of the central mountain chain
Friday night. The aforementioned upper trough will then work with
this moisture to produce showers and thunderstorms across the
eastern plains Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible on Friday
afternoon across portions of the lower RGV due to a combination of
gusty afternoon winds, low humidities and a very unstable air mass.
Coverage and duration are not sufficient to support the issuance of
any headlines, but something that should be monitored closely as a
fire, especially within the bosque, may have the ability to rapidly
grow. Otherwise, no critical fire weather conditions are anticipated
through the upcoming weekend. In fact, humidity relief is likely in
areas along/east of the central mountain chain as a cooler and more
moist boundary will remain situated over region, with outstanding RH
recoveries during the overnight hours. One thing to keep in mind is
the risk for thunderstorms along the moisture transition zone, which
may result in some lightning-induced ignitions.

This boundary is scrubbed out for early next week, and as a result,
a return to seasonal humidities are expected across the east. Winds
may be strong enough over the northeast to offer some critical fire
weather conditions. DPorter

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  47  77  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  38  74  38  74 /   0   0   5  10
Cuba............................  43  74  44  69 /   0   0   0  10
Gallup..........................  37  76  36  75 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  40  72  38  70 /   0   0   0  10
Grants..........................  38  77  38  74 /   0   0   0  10
Quemado.........................  42  76  38  72 /   0   0   0   5
Magdalena.......................  50  79  49  70 /   0   0   0  20
Datil...........................  45  74  43  69 /   0   0   0   5
Reserve.........................  43  79  35  77 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  55  83  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  37  68  36  66 /   0   0   5  20
Los Alamos......................  44  71  47  63 /   0   0   0  20
Pecos...........................  39  72  42  57 /   0   0  20  20
Cerro/Questa....................  45  67  46  61 /   0   0  20  30
Red River.......................  34  64  33  58 /   0  10  30  50
Angel Fire......................  29  64  29  56 /   0   5  30  40
Taos............................  36  73  38  66 /   0   0  10  20
Mora............................  34  72  37  54 /   0   0  30  30
Espanola........................  45  79  46  69 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Fe........................  44  73  47  63 /   0   0   5  10
Santa Fe Airport................  43  77  46  64 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  50  80  52  68 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  49  82  51  69 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  49  85  50  72 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  50  82  52  70 /   0   0   0  10
Belen...........................  48  85  49  75 /   0   0   0   5
Bernalillo......................  48  82  49  71 /   0   0   0  10
Bosque Farms....................  48  85  49  74 /   0   0   0   5
Corrales........................  48  83  51  72 /   0   0   0  10
Los Lunas.......................  48  85  49  74 /   0   0   0   5
Placitas........................  48  77  50  65 /   0   0   0  10
Rio Rancho......................  48  82  50  72 /   0   0   0  10
Socorro.........................  52  88  53  79 /   0   0   0  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  43  72  46  59 /   0   0   0  10
Tijeras.........................  44  76  47  60 /   0   0   0   5
Edgewood........................  40  77  43  60 /   0   0   0  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  37  79  39  61 /   0   0   0  10
Clines Corners..................  35  73  38  52 /   0   0  10  20
Mountainair.....................  41  77  44  61 /   0   0   0  10
Gran Quivira....................  42  77  43  62 /   0   0   0  10
Carrizozo.......................  52  81  49  69 /   0   0   0  10
Ruidoso.........................  46  74  45  61 /   0   0   5  20
Capulin.........................  31  64  31  45 /   0  10  60  20
Raton...........................  32  71  35  52 /   0   5  40  20
Springer........................  35  71  37  50 /   0   0  40  20
Las Vegas.......................  35  69  39  49 /   0   0  30  30
Clayton.........................  35  64  35  46 /   0   0  50  30
Roy.............................  35  67  37  46 /   0   0  50  30
Conchas.........................  40  75  41  50 /   0   0  50  50
Santa Rosa......................  39  72  41  49 /   0   0  30  40
Tucumcari.......................  38  68  39  50 /   0   0  60  50
Clovis..........................  41  64  42  50 /   0   0  60  60
Portales........................  41  67  42  51 /   0   0  60  60
Fort Sumner.....................  41  72  44  52 /   0   0  40  40
Roswell.........................  49  75  52  59 /   0   0  30  50
Picacho.........................  44  74  46  60 /   0   0  10  40
Elk.............................  43  79  44  65 /   0   0   5  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...44