National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KABR 200531 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1231 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Northwest winds gusting 35 to 45 mph will slowly diminish this
  evening. Flurries will exit from west to east this evening, as
  well.

- The next chance of rain (20-50%) will be Monday/Monday night.

- Near to above average temperatures Sunday through Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Updated discussion for the 06Z TAFs below.

UPDATE Issued at 909 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Radar still indicating there could be some flurries occurring, but
they are not widespread and should be ending in the next few
hours. No changes made to winds or temperatures at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

The upper trough and strong northwest flow have kept the flurries
going today even as sfc temps have warmed into the upper 30s. Expect
the flurries and/or sprinkles to taper off through the evening from
west to east as winds also slowly diminish with weakening mixing and
H7 jet support.

High pressure builds in from the northwest tonight and Saturday
bringing drier air but still well-below normal temperatures. An
elongated upper trough persists through Saturday keeping H85 temps
in the negative single digits Celsius. Winds will remain out of the
northwest on Saturday but should be significantly lighter given the
lack of a sfc pressure gradient especially by afternoon.

The one thing to watch will be just how low the temperatures fall
tonight and Saturday night. The dry air near the sfc (dewpoints in
the teens) plus any clearing of the clouds could see temps fall
below forecast lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

The long term portion of the forecast begins on Sunday with a
surface high pressure drifting south-southeast across the region
with a surface low and upper level trough approaching the area from
the west. The CWA will see increasing southerly winds, especially
along and west of the Missouri River where there is a 50-70 percent
chance sustained winds exceed 20 mph. The surface low pressure and
upper level trough will progress across the region Monday into
Tuesday, bringing a 20 to 50 percent chance of pcpn, mainly Monday
afternoon over the eastern half of the CWA.

A stronger storm system may track across the region toward the end
of the next work week and into the weekend. Depending on
deterministic model used system may produce a prolonged period of
showers, or mostly a passing shower with periods of dry conditions.
The grand ensemble suggests Thursday night through Friday night will
have the best potential of seeing pcpn, with the probability of
seeing two hundredth of inch at 35 to 65 percent. Due to timing
issues among models and ensembles, there is a significant spread for
temperatures over the CWA Thursday through Saturday. Possible highs
in the 60s and low 70s, or perhaps in the lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. Scattered
flurries (20%) also continue for the next several hours, mainly
over KABR/KATY. Otherwise, northwest winds will range between
10-25kts through the day and diminish this evening.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MMM
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...MMM