Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 210804

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
304 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

First, dropped any mention of fog as we are under an airmass that is
seeing cloud cover across most of the CWA, while underneath moisture
advection has been slowed by a NBL with winds only around 3-5mph.
Dewpoint depressions here are also between 10 and 20F.

For today the dissipating upper low is responsible for a degree of
cloud cover across the area, along with some light showers around
the Watertown area. BUFKIT profiles show some degree of cloudiness
lingering across the area but with late-May sunshine there should be
some breakup, with best forcing for showers moving north and east
while weakening. The main impact will be on temperatures and
followed previous shifts differentiation between the warmer west and
more cloud covered east with the James valley as the delineator.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

The period opens with the Dakotas sandwiched between a departing
high and a lee side low. As southerly return flow increases,
moisture will increase across the region. Coupled with warm temps in
the 80s under a building upper ridge, there will be sufficient
instability to generate some showers and thunderstorms by Tuesday
evening. Persistent weak sfc low pressure and shortwave activity
under the ridge will keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
through the end of the work week. Additional energy will be added on
Thursday night as a sfc front moves through with an upper trough.

Conditions are expected to dry out but remain warm next weekend as
another upper ridge builds in on Saturday and high pressure
dominates at the sfc. The dry conditions will be short-lived.
Another lee side low develops on Monday that will help set off more
showers and thunderstorms across central SD late in the day.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Currently, it looks like KABR/KATY will fall into some form of sub-
VFR cigs over the next 6 to 9 hours. Isolated to scattered showers
are also moving across far eastern South Dakota, and one or two
passing showers could impact either of these two terminals through
mid-Monday morning.

KPIR/KMBG are probably going to stay VFR over the next 24 hours.




SHORT TERM...Connelly
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