Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 211150 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
650 AM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Issued at 650 AM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

12z aviation discussion updated below.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Fog is fairly thin on satellite thanks to westerly flow west of the
Missouri valley, and just off the surface into the James valley. We
are also seeing the gradual erosion of cloud cover, which means
today will be fairly nice. Winds will weaken and shift to easterly
by this evening/overnight. As such, there is the potential for west
river/Missouri Coteau/Sisseton hill upslope fog/stratus to

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

The models have come into better agreement in the long term with the
upper level flow along with the individual short waves moving
through it. The models have continued to show a good band of
rain/snow developing Thursday night and moving east through Friday
night. Dont look for much freezing rain/sleet with this system as
the warmer air overrides the cooler air at the surface as it
retreats. With the warmer ground and the amount of time of snowfall
occurring, the amount of snow accumulating will be difficult to
determine. One to 3 inches at best seems okay for now. Also,
continued with windy conditions across the cwa on Friday with a good
surface pressure gradient. Otherwise, the models show a couple more
short waves coming across the region Saturday night through Monday
bringing in more good chances of rain/snow. The models then show a
large upper level low pressure area developing over the southwest
U.S. for Monday and Tuesday and it is not expected to affect our
region. We should be drying out with the northern stream westerly
flow aloft for Monday night and Tuesday. Temperatures through the
long term should be near to 10 degrees below normal. There will be a
good range in high temperatures on Friday and Saturday from the mid
30s northeast in the cwa to the lower 50s southwest in the cwa. For
Sunday through Tuesday, mainly 40s are expected.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 650 AM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

IFR/MVFR ceilings will be tough to get out of ABR and ATY for today
and tonight as low level moisture remains high along light low level
winds. ABR may have some breaks this afternoon and evening.
Otherwise, expect mainly VFR conditions at PIR and MBG through today
with some IFR/MVFR fog developing tonight.




SHORT TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Mohr is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.