Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 261149 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
649 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 649 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

12z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

A cold front will be moving quickly through our cwa this morning
with gusty north winds in behind it. This initial surge with the
tight surface pressure gradient will bring the stronger winds this
morning with the deepening mixing layer through the morning hours
sustaining the breezy/windy conditions into the afternoon. This
front will also come through dry with very little moisture with it
only bringing mid and high level clouds. The models initially show
the caa behind the front this morning with warming 925h temperatures
coming in from the west northwest this afternoon. Another cold front
will be moving into the region later tonight/early Friday with mild
west to southwest winds becoming northwest. Increased highs today a
few degrees closer to a lot of the various guidance numbers. With
mostly clear skies tonight and steady winds, expect lows only in
the upper 30s to the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

A surface ridge will be nosing south through the region on Friday.
There still appears to be enough of a gradient to produce breezy
winds and have increased winds slightly from SuperBlend - more
towards CONSMOS values. As the surface high settles in Friday night
into Saturday morning, winds go light and variable over the eastern
CWA under mostly clear skies. This appeared to be a good opportunity
to go cooler than the inherited SuperBlend guidance, especially over
the eastern CWA in favored cool spots. Trended more towards CONSMOS
and even went a couple degrees cooler in ABR.

The big warm up really gets going into the weekend, especially
Sunday and Monday. Pressure gradient tightens up nicely Saturday
night and Sunday with an impressive low-level jet developing.
SuperBlend winds looked too low during this time period, so
increased speeds more towards CONSMOS values. Rather warm 925/850 mb
temps stream over the area as well, so looking at highs well into
the 70s by Sunday and Monday, and could even see 80 degrees in
places. Will likely see fire danger concerns on Sunday, but current
forecast RH keeps readings high enough to avoid any headlines.

Weather pattern looks to get a big more active Sunday night into
early next week as shortwave energy lifts northeast across the
region. Left inherited POPs alone at this time until confidence
increases on timing and placement of the shortwaves and surface
boundaries. We do get some instability up into the region as well,
so thunderstorms look to be a possibility and have included this in
the forecast/grids.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 649 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

VFR conditions are expected through today and tonight. North winds
of 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 to 30 knots are expected to
decrease this afternoon and evening.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...Mohr
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...Mohr



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