Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KABR 140821

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
321 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Tranquil weather conditions will continue through the short term
portion of the forecast. While a back-door cold front will move
across the CWA this afternoon, temperatures will warm into the 30s
and 40s. Due to no snow cover, highs in the 50s are expected in
south central SD.

An area of low pressure approaching the region from the southwest
will bring easterly winds to the CWA tonight. Low level moisture
from snow melt today, could combine with the easterly winds to
produce fog over the higher terrain areas in western South Dakota.
Since fog formation has been difficult the past few nights, will
leave out fog for tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

The main forecast challenge in the early part of the extended
involves the system approaching the region on Thu night/Fri. GFS
operational run remains the wettest solution, while the GEFS plumes
indicate lesser snow amounts in the 1 to 3 inch range for areas
across south central SD. The ECMWF maintains a more southern track,
keeping Aberdeen and other northeastern areas dry. As the system
rolls into the Plains Thursday night, temperatures will be cool
enough at the sfc to support some freezing rain along and south of I-
90 before the temps rise and precp becomes rain or a mix of rain and
snow by Friday afternoon. By late Fri afternoon, the DGZ will begin
to lose some moisture and freezing drizzle will become more of a
concern. Overall, a good bit of the area could see some light ice
accumulations from freezing drizzle Friday evening before the system
exits, but this is largely dependent on just how far north the
precip spreads in the first place. A lot of uncertainty still exists
regarding placement of the low and the northern extent of precip

Another low will affect the region Sun night and Monday.
Temperatures will be warm enough to support a mix of rain and snow
during the day even though most areas will see below normal highs
through the period. Once the snow pack is gone, we will see temps
nudge toward average or even slightly above average.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Mainly VFR conditions are expected overnight and Wednesday. Some
patchy fog is possible around sunrise, but conditions are expected
to remain VFR.




AVIATION...Wise is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.