Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 270852
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
352 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High pressure will deliver a fair amount of sunshine and less wind
to the area today. Temperatures will remain chilly but begin to
modify the rest of the week as southerly flow draws in a warmer air
mass.

- Opportunity for light precip Thursday night and Friday, generally
20-50%, with potential for freezing rain as well. Amounts look light
(a few hundredths) for the time being.

- Potential for a stronger storm system Saturday night through
Sunday night. Moderate precipitation chances (40-70%) currently,
with mixed rain/snow as precip types.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 351 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Sfc ridging is slowly building into the central portion of South
Dakota early this morning. A light and variable wind and clear skies
across our western forecast area and points to the northwest into
southwest North Dakota has allowed temperatures to fall into the
single digits above and below zero. Farther east, a bit of a
pressure gradient has maintained a light to moderate wind with
temperatures still holding in the low to mid teens. The sfc high
will continue to shift southeast across central South Dakota today
giving most of us plenty of sunshine. One exception may be the
northeast corner of South Dakota and west central Minnesota where
some pesky clouds may hang tough into the afternoon as an upper
trough swings through Minnesota.

Winds will be much improved today with northwest breezes of 5-15 kts
with some gusts up to 20-25 kts across northeast South Dakota and
west central Minnesota this afternoon. Highs will be held on the
chilly side again in the 20s in most locales as a cold air mass is
maintained on northwest flow over a new snowpack. Weak WAA is
progged to kick in this afternoon across our southwest zones which
could help bump up readings into the low to mid 30s. The sfc high
drifts south of the area tonight into Thursday. Low level southerly
flow kicks back in drawing in a warmer air mass to the area. The
warmer air overspreading the snowpack could induce some fog toward
Thursday morning. Left mention out at this time after a perusal of
the ENS visibility meteograms for select locales shows no indication
of low visibility early Thursday. Temperatures will begin to modify
with warmest readings across central South Dakota in the 40s to
perhaps near 50 degrees in areas with less snowcover. Farther east,
where more snow cover resides, temperatures on Thursday will be held
in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 351 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Period starts off with upper ridging overhead at 00Z Friday. By 12Z
Friday the ridge axis pushes east into MN/WI while shortwave energy
moves into the Dakotas, with a trough of low pressure at the
surface. Precip chances remain with this system (20-50%), but
deterministic/ensemble output still showing a rather progressive
system here, so QPF amounts remain light. 24-hr probs of exceeding
0.25in precip amongst GEFS/GEPS/ENS all less than 10% for much of
the CWA. GEPS does have some 10-20% probs along Hwy 12 northward
into ND, where probs increase much more into ND. Even 75th
percentile QPF output are less than 0.25in. So, indications are
present that suggest ND may be more into the QPF than SD. Freezing
rain potential still exists with this system as ensemble membership
means are showing a few hundredths across the CWA. NBM output
continues to show freezing rain in wx grids, with PotFzra values
around 15% or less.

Focus then shifts to the potential stronger system affecting the
Central/Northern Plains Sunday into Monday. Cluster analysis reveals
most likely upper level pattern at this time favors split flow, with
a positively tilted trough axis across the western CONUS. Not too
confident on predictability in a split flow pattern, but it seems
certain that there will be some sort of system ejecting out into the
Central/Northern Plains this weekend into Monday, with low
confidence on overall details or any insight on precip/snow amounts.
Mean accumulated snowfall (assuming 10:1 ratio) for what it`s worth
at this point in the forecast is not overly convincing given the low
predictability pattern, but output does show amounts from 2 to 7
inches across the CWA amongst the four different clusters.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail over the next 24 hours at all
four terminals. High pressure building into the region will provide
for light winds and a sunny/mostly sunny sky at all four terminals
on Wednesday.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vipond
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...Dorn/Vipond


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