Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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350
FXUS63 KABR 172032
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
332 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Starting to see the effects of the strong lift in advance of the
upper level low pressure trough out to our west with increasing
clouds along with some radar returns. This is the result of the
strong upper divergence which is shown on the SPC mesoanalysis page.
As the negatively tilted trough moves into the region and closes
off to our south, expect widespread rain and snow to develop out
west into the evening and spread east by morning. The models again
show disagreement in the amounts and the extent of the qpf with
this system. The nam and Canadian are more robust mainly across
the east on Wednesday while the EC and GFS had less qpf. Air
temperatures, ground temperatures, snowfall rates, along with the
precipitation occurring on a mid April day will affect the
snowfall accumulations. Some of the snow may melt as it hits the
ground. The consensus was for lower qpf and thus snowfall amounts
for our region with mainly 1 to 3 inches. The least amounts will
occur along the North Dakota border in northeast South Dakota with
the highest amounts in the Watertown area. Therefore, let the
winter weather advisory remain in effect. Highs will be in the mid
to upper 30s east to the around 45 far west on Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Building high pressure will lead to dry weather until potentially
Friday when precipitation my extend into the CWA as an area of low
pressure passes to our south. Generally low pops however as not all
models agree on the northward extent. Another question is the amount
of cold air...have light snow/rain mix straddling the start and end
times of precipitation for both Friday morning and Saturday morning,
but the profile appears warm enough where this should largely be a
light rain event. We have another chance of moisture early next week
as an active pattern continues.

Regarding temperatures, the area should stay below average for the
rest of the week. Average highs are in the upper 50s this time of
year, for perspective, and that`s where models trend for the weekend
before cooling back off to start the next work-week. Lessening snow
cover will help air temps realize this potential. Looking further
ahead, the Climate Prediction Center has the area in above average
chances for above average temperatures for the first time in a while
in the 8-14 day outlook.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

An upper level low pressure trough digging into the region tonight
will spread rain and snow in from the west late this afternoon into
Wednesday morning. Therefore, expect VFR conditions to become
IFR/MVFR in vsbys and ceilings late this evening into Wednesday as
this system moves in.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM CDT Wednesday for
     SDZ018>023-037-051.

MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mohr
LONG TERM...Lueck
AVIATION...Mohr



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