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000
FXAK68 PAFC 241212
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
412 AM AKDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Friday)...

A ridge of high pressure aloft remains over Southcentral as a
weak front is approaching Kodiak Island today. This ridge is
slowing sown the front, but the ridge is also weakening and moving
to the east as the main upper level low in the Bering digs to the
southeast. This means another mostly sunny day for inland areas
of Southcentral before some clouds start to move in from the south
on Thursday. The Kenai Peninsula will start to see these clouds
move in today and Kodiak is already in the clouds and will get
some more light rain with the front today.

By Friday, most of Southcentral will be mostly clouds with some
showers popping up over the some of the mountains in the
afternoon and evening. A second front will move over Kodiak
bringing in some more rain. Neither the front today or on Friday
will bring in the heavy rain that was observed in Kodiak last
week. Without the upper level support and tap of deep moisture,
the rain amounts will be more typical of this time of year.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The forecast remains largely on track with a large occluded low
situated in the western Bering Sea. Latest model guidance
continues to be in good agreement with stalling the low`s
northward progress by midday on today. Thereafter, the low is
forecast drop southeastward, eventually crossing the Eastern
Aleutians near Unalaska sometime Friday morning in a weakened
state. Widespread small craft winds continue today and will
diminish through Thursday. Many areas across Southwest Alaska and
the Aleutians will see light showery conditions until the low
crosses into the North Pacific. A more focused area of precipitation
will span the Central and Eastern Aleutians as the occluded low
ventures southeastward into the North Pacific the next couple of
days.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sat through Tue)...

The low that is currently over the Bering Sea will have meandered
into the Gulf of Alaska by this weekend. The trough is tending to
linger there through the extended forecast period, slightly
nudging each day closer to the eastern Gulf. At the same time, a
ridge builds over the Bering Sea Sunday through Monday and begins
to toward Southwest Alaska as another low reaches the western
Aleutians by Monday night and western Bering for Tuesday.

Moderate to low confidence that the low in the Gulf will be south
enough to not have much QPF along the Gulf coast. This could mean
the potential for easterly waves to bring pop up showers though,
should skies be clear and enough moisture and instability for
those to develop. There is low confidence on this time interval,
especially over the Bering, where a front off the low will develop
and the timing as it progresses across the Bering early next
week.

rux

$$

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Southeast winds 10 to 15 kts
are expected to develop over the airport late this afternoon into
the evening.

&&
$$