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000
FXUS61 KALY 220227
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1027 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After a chilly night tonight, another cool, breezy and dry day
is expected for Monday with a mostly sunny sky. It will slightly
milder on Tuesday with increasing clouds, before a cold front
returns some rain to the region for Tuesday night into
Wednesday, with colder weather returning for the rest of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...As of 10:30 PM EDT...Outside of cosmetic adjustments
to temperatures, sky cover and winds to reflect recent obs, the
forecast remains on track. Clouds continue to decrease across
the area with heights increasing in advance of a surface
anticyclone encroaching upon the Ohio Valley. See previous
discussion for additional details on tonight`s forecast...

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION [353 PM EDT]
Upper cold pool and lingering upper energy along with some
moisture off the Great Lakes resulting in widespread clouds.
The upper impulse will exit through the night as low level
ridging will build in from the west and cold advection builds in
from the north. Increasing subsidence is expected to help mix
out the clouds through the night and by daybreak, many areas
should be mostly clear. Winds will diminish to light to calm by
daybreak as well. Lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s with mid
20s southern Adirondacks and northern Lake George area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cold advection through the day Monday with sunshine and steady
west to northwest winds. Highs in the mid 50s to near 60, with
upper 40s to around 50 higher terrain.

Upper trough lifts north and east out of our region Monday night
into Tuesday and warm advection occurs. Low level flow turns to
the south and some high clouds increase Tuesday afternoon, ahead
of the next upper energy. Highs Tuesday in the 60s with upper
50s higher terrain.

Upper closed low drops out of Canada Tuesday night into
Wednesday and phases with another upper impulse approaching from
the Great Lakes. Showers will spread into the region through
Tuesday night and Wednesday should be showery much of the day.
The upper low, upper trough and associated low level cold front
will exit Wednesday into Wednesday night. Temperatures will
likely fall through Wednesday afternoon as coverage of showers
decreases through the afternoon, ending by evening. Highs
Wednesday in the 50s, with 40s in higher terrain, and
temperatures dropping in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry weather and increasing sunshine Thursday as a cooler and
drier airmass spreads into the region. Highs in the mid to upper
50s with 40s higher terrain. Gradual warming Friday into
Saturday with upper ridging building in and warm advection.
Highs both days in the upper 50s to lower 60s and lower to mid
50s higher terrain.

There are some disagreements in sources of guidance/ensembles as
to the timing of upper energy approaching from the west Toward
next weekend. Some clouds and showers are possible Friday night
into Saturday and Sunday, depending on the timing with
potential stronger warm advection and moisture advection. Highs
Saturday and Sunday in the mid 50s to lower 60s with a few mid
60s Hudson Valley from the Capital Region southward.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00z Tuesday...VFR conditions will prevail throughout the
entirety of the 00z TAF period as high pressure subsidence
continues to work towards clearing skies overnight. Winds have
significantly decreased across the TAF sites, but expect a light
breeze to persist out of the northwest overnight and into
tomorrow. Sustained speeds will generally range from about 5 to
10 kt throughout the TAF period, though speeds overnight could
fall to about 2 to 5 kt.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather will be in place across the region for through
Tuesday. While temperatures will be on the cool side through
tomorrow, valley areas should be back into the 60s by Tuesday.
Monday and Tuesday look fairly sunny, but some clouds will
increase by later in the day Tuesday.

On Monday, RH values could be as low as 20 to 30 percent during
the afternoon hours. RH values will again drop on Tuesday into
the 35 to 45 percent range during peak heating.

Winds will be westerly Monday with some gusts 15 to 20 mph in
the afternoon hours. Southerly winds on Tuesday could gust as
high as 25 mph late in the day.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...Gant/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...Gant
FIRE WEATHER...NAS