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000
FXUS64 KAMA 250843
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
343 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

As of early this morning, latest radar and satellite imagery were
watching low-level cloud decks hold across the Panhandles thanks
to the continue ingestion of low-level moisture into the CWA. At
this time the drier air sitting in the mid-levels is doing its
expected job of keeping the area cap and incapable of producing
more than a brief shower and/or drizzle. However, areas around the
southeastern Panhandles will have to be monitor as the
ingredients are still present in the morning hours for a severe
thunderstorm to occur should the cap be broken. However, the main
event for the day is going to be the incoming system as models
continue to track an upper-level trough moving through just to our
north. This trough will help set-up our classic dryline scenario
for the Panhandles, in which everything west of the line will see
dry and windy conditions while to the east will be chances of
severe thunderstorms. Currently, confidence remains high that the
dryline will split the Panhandles roughly around the Amarillo to
Guymon line. This placement would see the eastern half of the
Panhandles under the chances of severe weather and the western
half under critical fire weather conditions.

When it comes to the western half and the chances of critical
fire weather, confidence is moderately high that we will see
critical fire weather conditions present late this afternoon into
the early evening. Winds are expected to shift out of the
southwest at this time bring the potential to see speeds nearing
25 to 35 mph and gust nearing 50 mph. However, one thing that
does delay these conditions is the relative humidity values with
most models not expecting values to reach near 10% till around
noon or 1 pm. Given the delay, the Red Flag warning will not start
until noon today and only last till 9 PM when winds begin to die
down.

On the east and severe side of the Panhandle, things are a lot
more complicated. The short and sweet of it would be to simply to
say that all hazards would be possible should anything break the
present cap and develop. However, to dig further lets look at the
ingredients in play for this afternoon and evening. As of this
morning, most models are see very good MLCAPE (2000 to 3000 J/kg)
meets very good shear at all levels with strong 0 to 1km shear
being one of the more concerning factors. The support and
ingredients are present for a storm to produce hail up to baseball
size with isolated strong tornadoes reaching the EF2+ range not
out of the question. Now for the metaphorical wrench in this
possibility. As good as these ingredients are, they are going to
be lock behind the same inversion that is capping the area now.
So, what is it going to take to break the cap? If you are banking
on the dryline to provide you with lift strong enough to overcome
the cap, then most models are going to have you wait until 6 to 7
pm tonight when the gradient sharpens. Unfortunately, that makes
for a very short window for anything to develop since the cap will
only strengthen once the sun sets. Now if you are banking on the
clouds breaking up and convective heating beating the cap then
this would need to occur much earlier in the day, which is not
looking good for the southeast. The northeast, on the other hand,
has me concerned. Looking through the latest model soundings that
area continues to have the best chances of breaking out of the
cloud cover the earliest which would give it plenty of time to
heat up and produce thunderstorms. Should that trend continue to
hold, then I would put best chances of initial convection up
there. Regardless given how conditional the severe potential has
become, it has been decided to back precipitation chances off for
the afternoon and leave the northeast with the best chance or 25
to 35%.

As for Friday, a brief dry period will look to follow the exit of
the system with breezy winds potentially being enough to create
elevated fire weather that afternoon. Otherwise, look for today
and Friday to see high nearing the mid to low 80s, especially in
the west where we dry out first.

Scoleri

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Model agreement is relatively high regarding a strong upper level
system encroaching upon the Plains to start the weekend. This low
is progged to be positioned around the Four Corners region by
Saturday afternoon, with a stout upper jet streak stretched atop
the forecast area out ahead of it. Placement of this synoptic
feature would favor a deepening sfc low in the vicinity of SE
Colorado to SW Kansas, generating a decent pressure gradient over
the Panhandles. Windy conditions will ensue as a result, with
sustained southwest winds of 25-35 mph expected across a majority
of the Panhandles. Wind fields aloft and limited cloud cover
appear favorable for higher gusts to reach the surface during the
afternoon and evening hours, with probabilistic data showing an
increasing signal (50-80% chance) for gusts to reach the 40-50 mph
range.

These southwest winds should also serve to usher in drier
air, allowing the dryline to mix further east, likely settling
along or east of the TX-OK border. On the off chance timing of
the system and placement of the dryline trend more favorably, at
best we would be looking at about a 15-25% chance for storms to
initiate in the very far east-southeastern Panhandles, before
quickly crossing into Oklahoma. Given the short turnover period
between systems and limited opportunity for moisture recovery,
current inclination is to lean heavily towards drier guidance for
the Panhandles. With warm, windy, and dry conditions expected,
critical fire weather concerns will return for portions of the
CWA.

As the upper level and attendant sfc low depart Saturday night, a
weak cold front will drop south, providing temperatures ~ 5-10
degrees cooler on Sunday (60s and 70s Sunday compared to 70s and
80s on Saturday). A warming trend shifts into full gear to kickoff
the work week, as broad ridging aloft gradually settles in.
Afternoon temperatures rebound nicely to the 70s and 80s Monday,
before further escalating towards the low 90s on Tuesday.
Anticipate dry conditions to dominate during this timeframe,
although subtle hints of precipitation potentially re-emerge by
mid next week.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

As of midnight, latest satellite was continue to watch a low
cloud deck hold over KAMA and most of the Panhandles. The only
exception is KDHT as dry pocket is allowing for some brief
clearing over the area. This pocket is not expected to last long
as satellite is already seeing clouds back fill in to the area.
Otherwise, look for these low clouds to continue to place
terminals at MVFR to IFR level through the overnight. Occasional
mist or drizzle may also occur at terminals and create temporary
visibility drop. However, they are not expected to stay consistent
at this time with mention being put into TEMPOs. Otherwise,
conditions should improve from west to east starting late Thursday
morning. South to southwest winds will also increase and become
gusty around late Thursday morning to afternoon, then persist
throughout the afternoon hours. In addition, it appears the main
threat for thunderstorms during this forecast cycle may remain
east of the terminal sites at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected for the
western Panhandles, behind the dryline, due to windy conditions and
low RH values. Fuels and fuel loading is most receptive generally
along and north of the Canadian River with more uncertainty south of
the Canadian River. The Fire Weather Watch has been converted to a
Red Flag Warning along and north of the Canadian River with Deaf
Smith County added in this latest update.

Scoleri

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                85  53  82  52 /  10  10   0   0
Beaver OK                  84  52  85  51 /  30  20   0   0
Boise City OK              85  47  81  44 /  10   0   0   0
Borger TX                  85  55  87  54 /  20  10   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              89  52  84  51 /  10   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  88  52  81  50 /  10   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               81  53  82  52 /  20  20   0   0
Dalhart TX                 86  46  81  44 /  10   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  86  50  84  46 /  30  10   0   0
Hereford TX                88  51  81  49 /  10   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                81  55  85  54 /  30  20   0   0
Pampa TX                   81  54  84  54 /  20  10   0   0
Shamrock TX                78  53  85  52 /  20  20   0   0
Wellington TX              79  53  85  52 /  20  30   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ001-002-006-007-011-012-016.

OK...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ001-002.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...11