217
FXUS64 KAMA 280530
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1230 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

As of this writing there is a mid to upper level low centered over
the Four Corners Region. The associated trough can also be seen
on GOES water vapor imagery bringing southwest flow aloft and
thunderstorms on the leading edge of this trough. Some
thunderstorms were present this morning in the southeastern TX
Panhandle, with the activity now shifted further east in western
OK. Looking as surface observations the the current dryline is
still trying to hang on to the TX/OK state line in the eastern
Panhandles. Dozier currently has a dewpoint of 57, however, the
winds have shifted more southwesterly while Childress has
southerly winds and a Td of 67. Wellington also has WSW winds with
a Td still around 64. Will have to keep an eye on this far
southeastern TX Panhandle around Collingsworth County for
additional thunderstorm development if this dryline hangs on or
retreats after a mixing east slightly. Thunderstorms may have the
potential to be severe, however, the tornado threat should be
further east out in front of the dryline.

The aforementioned upper level trough is in fact taking on a more
negative tilt with higher winds aloft being pushed further to the
east. This may keep some of the higher winds previously though to
occur across the west from mixing and limiting the max wind gusts
for areas in the Red Flag Warning today. Also, a surface front has
entered the far northwestern corner of Cimarron County. This front
is supposed to move into the area tonight, and should have
relatively light winds behind it. As the H5 low moves into eastern
CO tonight model guidance suggests additional PVA coming across
the central Panhandles, with CAMs suggesting showers between 11PM
and 3 AM Sunday. However, if you look at forecast soundings there
is quite the dewpoint depression at the surface, suggesting virga
showers and potential wind gusts with the dry conditions at the
surface. Only expecting sprinkles with maybe a few areas possibly
measuring a hundredth or two if the cold front can help close that
inverted V a bit.

Tomorrow, thanks to the front tonight, the northwestern combined
Panhandles may only see highs in the upper 60s to the lower 70
with the southeastern combined Panhandles in the mid 70s to
possibly 80 in Wellington. Winds are expected to be out of the
north to northwest around 10 to 15 mph tomorrow becoming light,
less than 10, going into the evening. As the center of the main H5
low is expected to be well up into NE/SD tomorrow evening, a
shortwave may enter the far northwestern combined Panhandles
introducing some light showers. Again, these showers may not be
very productive as there may still be a decent T/Td depression at
the surface. Other than that lows generally in the 40s expected
tomorrow night with winds still north to easterly around 5 to 10
mph.

36

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

The warm up commences on Monday and continues through Wednesday.
Upper level heights increase behind our weekend storm and the flow
becomes more zonal for Monday and Tuesday and then starts to become
more southwest on Wednesday. The forecast will also remain dry for
Monday and Tuesday.  By Wednesday, a dryline sets up in the eastern
Panhandles and an upper level disturbance moves across to help
produce showers and thunderstorms in this area through Wednesday
night.  A cold front moves through the Panhandles early on Thursday
as an upper level short wave moves across the northern Rockies onto
the northern Plains.  Upslope flow along with other weak disturbances
moving through the flow may keep a chance of showers and
thunderstorms going through Friday. However, the models do not agree
on the timing or the strength of the northern stream system for
Thursday and Friday, so the timing of any rain and the timing of
the cold front will likely change.

High temperatures are expected to be above normal Monday through
Thursday with the possibility of below normal temperatures on
Friday.  The warmest days are expected to be Tuesday and Wednesday
where many places may be a few degree either side of 90.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

VFR conditions are forecast at all sites throughout the period.
Some sporadic gusts will still be possible in the first few hours
of the period, but winds will generally remain on the lower side
out of the northwest through Sunday evening. Could see some MVFR
ceilings near KGUY towards the end of the period, but the vast
majority of clouds at any site will be mid to high level.

Harrel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                74  46  80  52 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  75  42  81  52 /  10  10  10   0
Boise City OK              68  41  78  46 /  10  20   0   0
Borger TX                  78  48  85  53 /   0  10   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              75  44  83  49 /   0  10   0   0
Canyon TX                  74  46  82  50 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               76  49  82  52 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 71  39  79  44 /  10  10   0   0
Guymon OK                  71  42  80  47 /  10  10  10   0
Hereford TX                76  44  82  50 /   0  10   0   0
Lipscomb TX                76  46  81  55 /  10  10  10   0
Pampa TX                   74  47  81  53 /   0  10   0   0
Shamrock TX                78  49  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              79  49  82  55 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...38