Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
581 FXUS64 KAMA 071122 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 622 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Fire weather continues to highlight the short term forecast. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are forecast again today for the central and western Panhandles. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across the southwest on Wednesday. Highs both today and Wednesday are forecast to be in the mid 70s to upper 80s. Latest satellite imagery shows clear skies across the Panhandles early this morning. Winds out of the west are continuing this morning which is continuing to bring dry air in across the area. Dew points at the time of this writing have only increased into the mid to upper teens for most areas with some locations (portions of the OK Panhandle and the eastern TX Panhandle) having dew points in the 20s to low 30s. With that being said, very poor relative humidity recovery is expected this morning for the region. Heading into the daytime hours today, zonal flow aloft will prevail across the forecast area. The surface pressure gradient is forecast to tighten again across the area by late morning and will continue into the afternoon hours. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph are likely across the central and west this afternoon. With continued dry air moving in from the west, elevated to critical fire weather conditions will arise once again today (for more fire weather details, see the Fire Weather discussion below). WAA at H850 is forecast for today with the temperatures rising into the mid teens celsius, this would lead to highs in the 80s area wide for this afternoon. A weak cold front will move across the area tonight into early Wednesday morning. Cooler highs temperatures are forecast for Wednesday but will still be in the 70s and 80s as the airmass behind the front is not all that cold. Breezy winds will be possible across the southwest and dry conditions will persist, so elevated fire weather conditions will still be possible for this area. Otherwise, Wednesday into Wednesday night looks to remain quiet weather wise with a secondary cold front moving across the Plains during the overnight hours. Muscha && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Dry weather will continue Thursday through Friday night as another upper level low pressure system organizes and centers over the vicinity of southern Nevada by late Friday afternoon. Chances for showers and thunderstorms may return to the region Saturday afternoon through Monday as the aforementioned upper level low pressure system moves slowly eastward. Precipitation amounts and areal coverage will depend on how much moisture returns to the area this weekend into early next week. For now, the NBM slight chance to low end chance pops look reasonable this far out in time and were included in the grids for Saturday through Monday. Medium range models and associated ensembles were in some semblance of agreement with differences noted in the finer details surrounding orientation and timing of this next upper level storm system. 02 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 619 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 VFR conditions are forecast over the next 24 hours. Winds will increase and remain out of the west around 18z with wind gusts of 30 to 40 kts. The winds will eventually slow down after 00z and a weak front will switch winds to out of the north during the overnight hours. Clear skies will prevail during this TAF period. Muscha && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected again today for the central and western Panhandles. Southwest winds this afternoon are forecast to be in the 20 to 30 mph range with gusts up to 40 mph. Relative humidity values will once again drop below 10 percent for most of the area during peak heating today. These conditions will lead to RFTI values in the 4 to 8 range, with the higher values across the west. The Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for this afternoon through the evening hours. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected for the northeastern Texas Panhandle and the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle. For Wednesday, elevated fire weather conditions are possible across the southwestern Texas Panhandle due to low relative humidity values around 10 percent or less and west winds with gusts up to 30 mph. Muscha && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 84 48 81 48 / 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 86 47 78 47 / 0 0 0 0 Boise City OK 82 41 75 43 / 0 0 0 0 Borger TX 88 49 83 50 / 0 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 86 45 83 48 / 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 84 48 82 47 / 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 85 52 82 51 / 0 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 83 39 78 42 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 84 43 77 44 / 0 0 0 0 Hereford TX 85 48 83 46 / 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 85 51 80 49 / 0 0 0 0 Pampa TX 85 48 80 48 / 0 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 85 53 82 51 / 0 0 0 0 Wellington TX 85 53 83 51 / 0 0 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>003-006>008-011>013-016-017-317. OK...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001-002. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....02 AVIATION...05