Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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390 FXUS63 KAPX 010744 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 344 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated fire danger in our southeast areas this afternoon/evening. - Occasional rain chances into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Pattern/synopsis: Another occluded surface low is seen upstream, over northern MN. A triple-point is over w central WI, with the warm front extending toward southern Lake MI and far sw lower MI. This low will fill as it moves east, over and east of Lk Superior today. Trailing the low, high pressure builds toward upper and central lower MI tonight. Forecast: A band of rain showers is advancing into northern MI this morning. Precip that has reached nw lower MI is (and will remain) on the light side. A more substantial slug of rain is heading toward upper MI. On the back edge of this precip band, a few lightning strikes have been occurring, especially near MNM. Though instability decreases with eastward extent, it isn`t quite zero here (up to 200j/kg). May mention some isolated morning thunder in the west. Total rainfall amounts thru this morning will range from about 0.25" in eastern upper MI, to circa 0.15" in the tip of the mitt, to 0.10" or less further south. Highest pops will be this morning. This afternoon, most of northern lower MI is dry; perhaps far northern lower could still see a stray shower. A better chance for showers lasts in eastern upper MI, with even a slight chance into early tonight. Partial clearing occurs this afternoon south of M-32, which will allow for warm temps there. Highs in the south half from the mid 60s to lower 70s. Mid 50s to mid 60s in the north. Fire wx issues: breezy to windy wnw winds this afternoon, and warm temps. Rh values are presently progged to lower close to 30 percent near Saginaw Bay...which is also one part of the forecast area progged to see the least QPF. Elevated fire danger will be mentioned for HTL-Mio-Harrisville and points se. Tonight...relatively cloudy skies persist in the north. In the south, partial cloud cover starts to increase again late ahead of our next system. Any precip likely waits until Thursday. Min temps mainly within a few degrees of 40f. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Upper trough and sfc low track to the west of northern Michigan Thursday, cold front to follow on Friday as system advects north- northeastward. Rain showers expected as a result with some embedded/isolated thunderstorms possible as well. Another quick hitting disturbance is progged to move across the region this weekend with some more showery activity. Heights begin to build early next week in response to another upper trough moving across the middle portions of the country. Primary Forecast Concerns: Currently in a pattern that facilitates rain chances every couple/few days it seems, which will continue through this weekend at the very least. Low pressure system will track to the west of N MI Thursday into Friday, resulting in warm, moist advection and thus the chance for rain showers. Guidance suggests the best zone of precip will be west of I-75, but most locations should get in on the action heading into Friday as the frontal boundary focuses additional showers. Couple models suggesting elevated instability resulting in some embedded thunderstorm activity Thursday evening into early Friday, but others are quite warm aloft and thus are not as impressive. Nevertheless, at least some chance exists for elevated embedded convection Thursday night and then isolated thunderstorms Friday. All in all, some areas could see some beneficial, wetting rains. Next piece of energy aloft will move through this weekend resulting in additional rain chances, although looking light for the most part. A somewhat more impactful system will have to be monitored for early-mid next week as a deeper upper low/sfc low pressure system moves into the central CONUS and then eastward in some fashion. Couple ensembles hint at non zero CAPE values so that`s what the we`ll be watching for in the coming days, but really a much too far look into the future for any sort of elaboration. During this entire period, daytime high temperatures likely remain in the 60s and 70s for much of the region. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Fast-moving area of low pressure and associated cold front will sweep thru the Western Great Lakes region overnight into Wednesday morning...bringing a quick bout of showers to Northern Michigan during this time. MVFR/IFR conditions will hold on across Eastern Upper Michigan overnight into Wednesday morning...with mainly MVFR/low VFR conditions expected across Northern Lower Michigan thru Wednesday. Light/variable winds overnight will become SE at 10 to 20 kts Wednesday morning...shifting to the west at 15 to 25 kts Wednesday afternoon. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...JLD AVIATION...MLR