Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

000
FNUS53 KAPX 241929
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
329 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...Low RHs Precede Wet Weekend; Breezy Friday...

.DISCUSSION... High pressure overhead will continue a theme of
efficient mixing from aloft. Fortunately for Thursday, this high
pressure will also contribute to minimal southeasterly surface flow
across the greater region as dewpoints crater into the teens and
air temps hold in the 50s (RHs lower 20s). That all being said,
a favorable setup for lake breezes to quickly build inland (perhaps
moving ashore as early as mid morning) will allow for potential
drastic wind shifts and increases in wind speeds. High pressure
will slowly be forced eastward Thursday night into Friday as low
pressure moves into the Corn Belt. This will lead to an increased
pressure gradient, and a pretty potent increase in both surface
flow and wind gusts Friday. Sustained SE winds as high as 10-20mph
with perhaps some 30mph gusts are on the table as we head into
Friday afternoon. In addition, dry air aloft will likely lead to
another day of cratering dewpoints, particularly in downsloping
locales closer to Lake Michigan. Temperatures will also be warmer,
ranging from near to a little above 60 for most, with mid-to-upper
60s across northwest lower Michigan. The combination of increased winds,
warmer temperatures, and continued lower RHs will lead to favorable
wildfire growth conditions at least through Friday afternoon. Eventually,
moisture from the approaching low pressure system will begin to make
its presence know in the lower levels of the atmosphere, with an increase
in dewpoints set to initiate into Friday evening, with rain and thunder
chances building into the region Friday night, continuing periodically
through the weekend as temperatures warm into the 70s (though with
dramatically higher dewpoints in the 50s and perhaps lower 60s).


MIZ016-017-021>023-099-250815-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
329 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Min Temperature.....16-21.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........73-78 percent...except 60-65 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......31 percent drier...except 5 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming
                    light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (29).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 6 mph shifting to the south around
                    9 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max Temperature.....50-55...except 39-44 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........19-24 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter...except 15 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (340).
Mixing Height.......4900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Min Temperature.....30-35...except 37-42 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......16 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........65-70 percent...except 50-55 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier...except 21 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (35).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 9 mph shifting to the south around
                    12 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max Temperature.....61-66...except 50-55 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer...except 15 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........23-28 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter...except 5 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (931).
Mixing Height.......4000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 15 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-250815-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
329 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Min Temperature.....17-22...except 24-29 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........72-77 percent...except 54-59 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......20 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming
                    light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (18).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 6 mph shifting to the south after
                    midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max Temperature.....49-54...except 38-43 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........21-26 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (332).
Mixing Height.......4100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Min Temperature.....27-32...except 35-40 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........73-78 percent...except 57-62 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (28).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max Temperature.....59-64...except 43-48 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........26-31 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (712).
Mixing Height.......3400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-250815-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
329 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent).
Min Temperature.....17-22...except 24-29 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........82-87 percent...except 64-69 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......24 percent drier...except 13 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (26).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 6 mph shifting to the southeast
                    around 9 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max Temperature.....52-57...except 37-42 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........20-25 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier...except 9 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (334).
Mixing Height.......4800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Min Temperature.....30-35...except 38-43 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........67-72 percent...except 54-59 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier...except 10 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southeast after midnight.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (26).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 6 mph shifting to the southeast
                    around 12 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max Temperature.....62-67...except 47-52 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer...except 14 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........25-30 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter...except 4 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (919).
Mixing Height.......3700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 18 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .


$$

MIZ031>033-250815-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
329 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent).
Min Temperature.....16-21.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........81-86 percent.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent drier...except 2 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southeast after midnight.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (33).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 6 mph shifting to the southeast
                    around 9 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max Temperature.....53-58...except 42-47 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........20-25 percent...except 31-36 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged...except 8 percent wetter along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (374).
Mixing Height.......5500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min Temperature.....31-36.
   24 HR Trend......16 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........70-75 percent...except 55-60 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (28).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent).
Max Temperature.....61-66.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer...except 13 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........24-29 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter...except 2 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (972).
Mixing Height.......3800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 18 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-250815-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
329 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Min Temperature.....17-22.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........84-89 percent.
   24 HR Trend......23 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming
                    light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (33).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 9 mph shifting to the southeast
                    around 6 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max Temperature.....50-55.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........20-25 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (370).
Mixing Height.......5400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min Temperature.....27-32.
   24 HR Trend......17 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........79-84 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (32).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........24-29 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (998).
Mixing Height.......4200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 15 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
HIGHS AROUND 60. WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

HAD