176
FNUS73 KAPX 011818
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for National City SVE RX...USFS
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
218 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1411 EDT on May 01.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Gusty west winds continue this afternoon at the burn site
with temperatures in the 70s and RHs falling to the upper 20s to near
30 percent. Good RH recovery overnight with diminishing winds. Increasing
and thickening clouds expected on Thursday with eventually some showers arriving
later in the day and especially Thursday night into Friday. Not quite as warm
Thursday with initial northerly winds shifting more east-southeasterly during the
afternoon.

For an updated spot forecast overnight, please submit another request with a
future date/time.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........29 percent.
20-foot winds.......West winds around 12 mph with gusts to around
                    31 mph.
Transport winds.....West 28 to 31 mph.
Mixing height.......5900-6800 ft AGL.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Excellent (1637.0).

TIME (EDT)      2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........37  18  18  18
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............71  72  72  71
RH..............44  35  30  29
20 ft wind dir..SW  W   W   W
20 ft wind spd..14  15  15  15
20 ft wind gust.22  31  31  31
Mix hgt (kft)...5.9 6.8 6.7 5.9
Haines index....5   5   5   5
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.31  31  30  28
Vrate kt-ft.....1823212120181637
Ventrate Cat....EXL EXL EXL EXL

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 42.
Max humidity........96 percent.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 29 mph
                    early in the evening.
Transport winds.....West 21 to 26 mph becoming northwest 10 to 16
                    mph in the late evening and overnight.
Mixing height.......4700-5500 ft AGL decreasing to 700-1100 ft AGL.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Very good (1146.0) decreasing to poor (68.0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........17  22  27  27  26  41  47  64  69  63  58  62
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............69  67  61  58  55  54  51  50  49  47  45  44
RH..............31  33  42  51  61  66  77  77  80  83  89  89
20 ft wind dir..W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 ft wind spd..14  14  14  8   8   8   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 ft wind gust.29  29  29  16  16  16  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...5.5 4.7 3.3 1.4 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7
Haines index....5   5   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   NW
Transp wind spd.26  24  21  16  15  15  13  13  12  12  12  10
Vrate kt-ft.....14471146677 224 149 131 140 129 94  96  89  68
Ventrate Cat....VGD VGD GD  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 64.
Min humidity........44 percent.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph early in the
                    morning becoming light, then becoming southeast
                    5 to 6 mph in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....North 6 to 12 mph shifting to the southeast 6
                    to 7 mph early in the afternoon, then
                    increasing to 8 to 9 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......600-2300 ft AGL increasing to 2300-3300 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor (56.0).

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........50     62     52     39     63     67
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............44     44     52     58     62     62
RH..............89     89     66     55     48     46
20 ft wind dir..NW     NW     N      E      E      SE
20 ft wind spd..6      6      5      7      7      7
20 ft wind gust.10     10     8      10     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....600    1300   1800   2600   3300   2700
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
Transport wind..N 12   N 10   N 7    E 6    SE 8   S 9
Vrate kt-ft.....72     135    123    152    267    248
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

$$
Forecaster...MJG
Requested by...Corey Smith
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412945.0/APX
.DELDT 05/01/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL corey.smith@usda.gov