Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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935
FXUS63 KBIS 260530
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1230 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Current forecast looks good with no updates needed for tonight.

UPDATE
Issued at 958 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

No changes to the forecast. Awesome Friday evening with a clear
sky, light winds, and temperatures still in the 70s.

UPDATE
Issued at 700 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Convection has moved off to our east so POPs were lowered and any
shower/t-storm wording has been removed. Lingering diurnal CU will
clear through mid evening. Beautiful night ahead with winds
tapering off and the sky trending clear, along with low
temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

The main focus for the short-term is isolated thunderstorms east
this evening and thunderstorms west tomorrow evening.

There appears to be just enough upper level ascent to spark some
isolated showers/thunderstorms across the James Valley this
evening. Coverage should be limited and as soon as diurnal heating
wanes they should dissipate.

Tomorrow evening a lee surface low develops and the upper level
ridge begins to push east. Showers and thunderstorms are possible
later Saturday evening west as moist advection kicks in and
forcing improves along the surface trough. Models differ with
respect to just how much instability will be available, but there
does appear to be enough shear (40ish knots) to present a threat
of a few severe storms.

High temperatures Saturday will approach record highs with
readings in the low to mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

The Memorial weekend forecast is setting up to be warm with
increasing chances for thunderstorms. An upper low out west will
slowly migrate northeast toward the Northern Plains. This should
set up an active period for thunderstorms Saturday night through
Wednesday.

Precipitable water is forecast to be above the 90th percentile
for this time of the year, and therefore heavy rain is possible in
any thunderstorms that do develop. Additionally, with the
presence of a warm front and increasing low-level moisture severe
storms with 2,000+ J/KG CAPE and 40-50 knots of shear are
possible Sunday across a good portion of western and central North
Dakota.

Temperatures will be closer to normal Monday through Thursday
with highs mainly in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Mainly clear skies and light winds will be the rule across the
region Saturday. VFR expected. By late Saturday evening Low
pressure will move to southeast Montana and will be the focus for
increasing chances for thunderstorms Late Saturday night. A few
may approach KISN, although more likely after 06Z Sunday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA



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