Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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202 FXUS63 KBIS 042342 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 642 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Southeast winds gusting to 50 mph on Sunday over western and parts of south central North Dakota. The stronger winds may continue into Monday spreading east. - Chances for rain return late Sunday evening and continue through the work week. The wettest period will be Monday through Tuesday when most of western and central North Dakota will see high chances (80 to 100 percent) of rain. - Mild temperatures Sunday, with a modest cool down for the upcoming work week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 638 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 The forecast for tonight remains on track. Diurnally driven clouds will continue to dissipate early to mid evening, along with any lingering showers diminishing between now and 02Z. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Current surface analysis places low over northeast Ontario with high over the central plains. Upper level analysis places low over southern Hudson Bay, with secondary low over southern Saskatchewan. The slightly cyclonic flow with a few waves moving through have resulted in cloud cover over the area and a few light showers. A much larger upper low remains off the west coast, which will be our main weather-maker this coming week. For the rest of the day into tonight, clouds and any lingering light showers should dissipate early this evening with mainly clear skies developing. On Sunday, upper low does its eastward progression over the western CONUS, with a ridge ahead of it pushing over our area. This will result in quiet weather, with mild temperatures. In the meantime, an elongated low develops to the east of the northern/central Rockies in response to the approaching upper features, with a high over the midwest. This will result in a tightening pressure gradient over the area, especially over western parts of North Dakota. The strongest winds gusting to 50 mph are mainly expected west of the Missouri River into far northwest North Dakota, thus a Wind Advisory has been issued. On Sunday Night, upper low pushes over the northern/central Rockies with rain chances starting to push west to east over our area. Winds will continue into the evening, possibly through the overnight. Have decided to run aforementioned wind advisory until midnight CDT, but this can be re-evaluated. On Monday, low continues its push into the northern plains, with the stronger winds focusing more on central/eastern North Dakota. Widespread rain is expected, with some thunderstorms given the modest instability but elevated shear. Thus, can not rule out a stronger storm possibly developing. Models still showing the possibility of a dry slot occurring, but continue to show some disagreement on exactly where this will occur. Therefore, some question does remain on total amounts as this feature will be a key player. Low lingers over the area through mid-week keeping rain chances in the forecast before gradually washing out later in the week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 638 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 SCT-BKN low VFR ceilings will dissipate through this evening, with VFR flight conditions forecast at all terminals for the 00Z period. Southeast winds will be on the increase Sunday morning, becoming gusty during the day, especially west and south central. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ Sunday to midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ Sunday night for NDZ001-009-010-017>020-031>034- 040>045. && $$ UPDATE...NH DISCUSSION...JJS AVIATION...NH