Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 180902

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
402 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

We have issued a winter weather advisory for snow and light
freezing drizzle for this afternoon, tonight and Monday morning.
This advisory covers much of the west and central, but does not
include the far north nor the far south central.

Consensus among models focus the highest snow amounts across the
west and north central, from Dickinson northeast to Minot where 3
to 5 inches are forecast, with an isolated 6 inch amount
possible. Temperatures are forecast to be a few degrees cooler
today than previously thought, which will keep most of the
precipitation as snow, although some rain will mix in at first
across the south.

While most models have modest frontogenesis, the NAM, which
showed strong mesoscale banding and moderate to strong
frontogenesis, with associated much higher QPF, was judged the
outlier and not considered. The GFS and ECMWF looked reasonable
and the Superblend guidance was used with little adjustment.

Some patchy freezing drizzle is possible southwest today, then
mainly snow tonight and Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

There will be a residual chance for snow on Tuesday then
Wednesday and Thursday look dry and milder, with an h500 ridge
over teh central US. Highs are expected to reach into the lower
40s southwest and 30s elsewhere.

By the end of the week into the weekend, a large and potent
negatively tilter upper low over the northwest US will send some
shortwave energy into teh northern Plains. Current trends suggest
another opportunity for accumulating snow Friday through Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Hazards to aviation include widespread IFR to LIFR conditions in
areas of fog and low stratus expected to develop across est and
central North Dakota Sunday morning. This will be followed by
developing snow over western North Dakota Sunday evening. Patchy
areas of freezing drizzle are possible but too much uncertainty to
include in TAFs at this time.


Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon
to 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Monday for NDZ010>012-017>021-031>034-



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