289
FXUS63 KBIS 091140
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
640 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slightly warmer temperatures with isolated afternoon and
  evening showers expected today.

- Warm and mainly dry trend expected Friday through Saturday.
  Some breezy to windy winds possible on Friday. Chances for
  isolated showers and thunderstorms could return Sunday.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures along with periodic
  chances for showers and thunderstorms possible next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Mid level disturbance continues to produce clouds across the
CWA. These could linger into the morning before additional
clouds and perhaps a few showers for this afternoon. Made slight
adjustments to sky grids based on current observations. There
are some areas in the west that are near or at saturation. A DOT
webcam near Beach also showing some patchy fog. Although not
expected to be widespread, placed in some patchy fog mention
this morning for some of these western areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

A mid level boundary is currently bringing some increased cloud
cover across portions of the CWA this morning, and will slowly
drift south through the morning. An east to west ridge will keep
much of the area dry through the morning, with some clearing
skies away from this boundary. As this ridge moves through the
region and flattens later today, an increased amount of mid
level moisture along a secondary front will move back into the
area. This could bring some isolated showers this afternoon
through this evening, although dry air at the lower levels will
help limit these. Limited instability will also limit the
thunderstorm threat today. Temperatures today will be slightly
warmer than previous days, with some areas getting back into the
lower 70s. Northerly winds could become breezy at times today.
Dry air will diminish showers tonight. A steady north northwest
wind could be found, along with low temperatures in the 40s. A
clipper system then looks to push through eastern North Dakota
on Friday. The better dynamics for showers looks to be east of
our CWA, although there could still be some breezy to perhaps
windy northwest winds. Temperatures look to remain mild as the
cooler air with this system also looks to move in more east of
the CWA.

A northwest flow pattern then looks to settle in for this
weekend. This looks to also be a warming pattern as the ridge in
the Pacific Northwest flattens over the Northern Rockies and
brings about warming temperatures into the 70s for Saturday.
This could bring a steady westerly flow for Saturday. Afternoon
RH could also drop into the 20s to mid 30s. Some increased fire
weather concerns are possible, although recent rains have made
fuels quite green. A weak wave may move across the state in this
northwest flow pattern on Sunday. Isolated to perhaps scattered
showers and thunderstorms could be possible as a result,
although this wave would have to first overcome some of the dry
air in place. Temperatures look to remain mild and generally in
the 70s. Winds look to lessen slightly, and RH values also look
to slightly improve for Sunday, limiting fire weather concerns.

Clusters then indicate that a flattening ridge could lead to a
zonal flow pattern followed by perhaps a broad yet more
northerly position trough. The result of this could be periodic
chances for showers and thunderstorms early to mid next week.
Temperatures in this potential pattern may not be as warm, as
indicated by the broad spreads in the NBM. Of note though are
even the 25th percentiles forecast highs are close to normal. So
the potential for slightly above normal temperatures still
remains.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Mainly VFR conditions expected through the forecast period.
A band of lower to mid level clouds will be found across
portions of the forecast area this morning. SCT to perhaps BKN
cloud coverage could then remain through today into this evening.
Ceilings for these clouds are expected to be at VFR heights
throughout the forecast period. This afternoon through this
evening could see a few isolated showers, although confidence
was not high enough to include these in the TAFs at this time.
Clouds then diminish tonight, with mainly clear skies expected
for most sites by the end of the forecast period. Light winds
will become a steady north northwest wind later today and
through the night.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Anglin
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin