Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 251648
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1148 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

No major changes required for this update.

UPDATE Issued at 855 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Minor update to temperatures and wind today. Increased
temperatures a few degrees with readings already in the 70s for
many locations. Winds were also increased a bit across southern
North Dakota from 5-10 to 15-20 this afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 624 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Current forecast looks fine with no changes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Although fire weather concerns show up in the short term across
the north central Friday afternoon, with near critical fire
weather conditions forecast, will not issue any headlines as the
fire danger rating remains low owing to the spring greenup.

Otherwise, the short term will see very warm temperatures with
highs in the mid 80s to around 90 today. Overnight lows tonight
will be in the mid 50s to around 60.

Departed from Superblend guidance Friday afternoon as the GFS
suggests a deep mixed layer through 700 mb which will mix down
winds across the north central, where we increased the afternoon
winds to 20 to 25 mph and lowered the dewpoints into the upper
40s. Otherwise accepted the SB guidance for the remainder of the
short term.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

The Memorial weekend forecast is setting up to be warm with
increasing chances for thunderstorms. An upper low over the great
basin will slowly migrate northeast toward a downstream ridge
initially over the northern plains. This should set up an active
period for thunderstorms. Highs on Saturday may approach a record
at Bismarck, which is 92 set in 2006.

This weekend a tropical system is moving onshore across the Gulf
states, and whether or not this moisture will stream northward is
somewhat doubtful with an h500 ridge blocking the path. However,
precipitable water is forecast to be above the 90th percentile for
this time of the year, and some heavy rain may be possible
Saturday night through Sunday night with thunderstorms that form.

Temperatures will be more normal Monday through Thursday with
highs mainly in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period. Westerly winds will
diminish this evening and become southerly across western North
Dakota by tomorrow morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 226 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Fire weather concerns today focus on minimum relative humidity
around 20 percent, and afternoon winds gusting to 25 mph for a
short period between 2 pm and 6 pm CDT this afternoon. A deep
mixed layer is forecast in strong daytime heating through 9000
feet, and the mixing will lower relative humidity to near 20
percent and winds will increase to 20 to 25 mph from the west
northwest.

This will create near critical fire weather conditions across
portions of the far north central. However because the fire
danger rating remains low will not issue any headlines at this
time.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...WAA



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