Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 241351

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
851 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Issued at 851 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Latest webcams as well as some surface observations still support
dense fog across most of western North Dakota, enough evidence to
keep the dense fog advisory going through 11AM CDT. The worst
visibilities are from Ray to Tioga and into Stanley with less
than one quarter mile. RAP BUFKIT soundings also maintain adequate
omega/lift in the low level saturated/stratus layer capable of
producing light freezing drizzle through 11AM CDT. Thus, no
changes to the current headlines in effect.

UPDATE Issued at 647 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Little change with this update as observed trends through 1150 UTC
support ongoing headlines.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Fog and freezing drizzle this morning, and a potential wintry mix
tonight highlight the short term forecast.

Freezing drizzle will continue across central North Dakota this
morning with ice loss in the column and low level omega.
Additional ice accumulations as high as one tenth of an inch are
possible. Extended most of the Winter Weather Advisory through 16
UTC for a longer duration threat of freezing drizzle per 07 UTC
RAP soundings.

Per webcam trends through 835 UTC, expanded the Dense Fog Advisory
to include Burke and Mountrail counties valid through 16 UTC,
which replaces the Winter Weather Advisory that was in effect for
these counties. Westerly winds From Beach through Hettinger are
preventing dense fog formation for these areas.

For tonight, a strengthening low level jet, and associated warm
air advection, is expected to develop across the Northern Plains
with multiple impulses embedded in southwest flow aloft. Thus,
scattered precpitation in the form of a wintry mix is expected
area wide tonight. Cannot rule out a lightning strike or two
south central given steep mid level lapse rates. Surface
temperatures will be crucial to the precipitation type. If the
warmer edge of guidance verifies, which is possible given the
strong surface wind field and cloud cover, freezing rain/drizzle
potential will be limited. However, if the cooler 00 UTC guidance
consensus verifies, there will be greater potential for freezing
rain/drizzle. Drizzle or freezing drizzle is possible as the
column saturates, with a wintry mix thereafter of rain,freezing
rain, and snow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

A wintry mix central Sunday, and another potential round of
wintry mixed precipitation Monday highlight the extended forecast.

The 00 UTC global suite favors a continuation of the mixed
precipitation event from the short term through Sunday morning,
decreasing in the afternoon. As described in the short term,
surface temperatures will drive precipitation type, and these
remain somewhat uncertainty Sunday morning.

Another wave and potential wintry mixed precipitation may impact
western and central North Dakota Monday, generally south of US
Highway 2. Again, uncertainty in precipitation type is high with
near freezing temperatures.

Farther out, a clipper may impact the region Wednesday into
Thursday, with a period of below normal temperatures potentially
to follow.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 647 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions in freezing drizzle across
portions central North Dakota this morning, impacting
KMOT, KBIS, and KJMS. Additional ice accumulations as high as one
tenth of an inch are possible. LIFR/VLIFR conditions in freezing
fog will continue across much of western North Dakota this
morning, impacting KDIK, and KISN. MVFR/IFR stratus this
afternoon. A wintry mix with IFR conditions developing tonight,
with strong southeast winds with gusts over 30kts possible.


Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning
for NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning for



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