Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 272319
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
619 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 537 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

A few minor tweaks were made to the precipitation forecast for
tonight. Thunderstorms aren`t expected for several hours. The main
focus for thunderstorm development will be across LaMoure,
McIntosh and Dickey Counties late this evening as this is the area
of greatest instability coupled with an area of strengthening
low/mid level frontogenesis.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Latest visible imagery shows a mix of sun and cloud across
western/central North Dakota. Cumulus field evident across
northwest and north central, and some cumulus along with high
clouds elsewhere. Pressure falls continue to push into eastern
North Dakota ahead of a cold front, with 3hr pressure rises
across the west and central. Adjusted high temperatures into the
upper 70s north, with upper 80s south central to the lower 90s far
southern James River Valley.

Water vapor imagery shows our next mid level shortwave slowly
moving north from Colorado, which will promote the development of
showers and thunderstorms into southern South Dakota between 00z
and 03z. Some of the CAM`s show an area of showers/thunderstorms
extending near and south of Ellendale by 03z, and have added this
area into the forecast grids this evening. Otherwise, the trend
is for the ongoing convection in South Dakota to lift into
southern North Dakota 06z-12z Monday, mainly along and south of
Interstate 94. This convection will be moving into an area of
weakening CAPE/Shear. Thus at this time most of the thunderstorms
should remain non-severe.

For Monday, greater instability begins to initiate in the afternoon
with another chance for showers and thunderstorms. Think the south
has the best opportunity for severe weather chances as the highest
CAPE/Shear again resides along and south of Interstate 94.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue Monday night
through Tuesday night, then taper off from west to east during
the day Wednesday. This is in response to a slow moving upper low
which shifts from Wyoming into central and eastern North Dakota.
A brief break Wednesday night into most of Thursday, then periodic
showers/thunderstorms return via a southwest flow aloft through
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 537 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Showers and
thunderstorms may impact KDIK/KBIS/KJMS after 06z. Brief gusty
winds of 25kt to 40kt and heavy downpours can be expected with any
thunderstorms that do develop. KISN/KMOT will be far enough
removed from the precipiation and will keep them dry through 00z
Tuesday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ


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