Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 250802

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
302 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Near critical fire weather conditions possible.

A cold front will move from northwest to southeast across the State.
Gusty winds of around 35 mph will accompany the front along with
false hope for rain in the northwest this evening. Current BUFKIT
soundings in the northwest indicate ample dry air in the low/mid
levels, squashing chances for rain. Minimum RH values in the upper
teens and lower 20s are expected in southwest, central, and north
central areas. The SPC Fire Weather Outlook highlights the far
northeast as an elevated risk. However, afternoon cloud cover adds
uncertainty to the minimum RH and high temperature forecasts. Thus
opted not to go with a red flag warning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

A strong ridge will begin building into North Dakota on Thursday,
with the ridge axis located over central North Dakota by Sunday.
This will usher in the warmest air of the year so far, with high
temperatures in the lower 80s in many spots across western and
central North Dakota.

Fire weather concerns are marginal for Saturday and Sunday, as
relative humidities and winds look favorable.

The latest suite of global models suggests chances for
rain return later Sunday night through Tuesday morning, as an
upper level low moves through the state. A few thunderstorms
will be possible as instability, moisture and lift look to be
sufficient in some spots.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

VFR conditions expected at all terminals through the forecast
period. Gusty southwest winds return by mid/late morning.



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