Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 210226
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
926 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.UPDATE...

Issued at 925 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Sky cover was updated, otherwise there are no changes to the
forecast at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 640 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Forecast for tonight remains on track.

We did opt to increase forecast highs for Saturday with models
advertising warmer boundary layer temperatures and continued good
mixing.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

A breezy, but seasonable Saturday highlights the short term
forecast.

Bismarck made a run at the record for the latest first 60 degree
temperature, which was April 22, 1884 and 1975. However, Bismarck
did rise above 60 for the first time this year earlier this
afternoon.

A trough of low pressure across central Montana this afternoon
will remain in place through the night, and begin to propagate
east as a cold front Saturday afternoon. A tight pressure gradient
ahead of these features will support breezy conditions with gusts
to 30 kts along and west of US Highway 83. Did raise highs on
Saturday into the 60s for most areas, above the 12 UTC guidance
consensus, given more efficient warming observed the past few
days with snow free ground. Slightly cooler temperatures are still
expected where snow remains on the Missouri Coteau.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Continued mild conditions on Sunday, with a quick moving
precipitation event Monday afternoon through Monday night
highlight the extended forecast.

The 12 UTC global suite favors a weak cold front to propagate
across western and central North Dakota on Sunday. With mixing,
another day of widespread 60s are forecast on Sunday, again a bit
above the guidance consensus as described in the short term.
Thereafter, a shortwave arriving on the Pacific coast Sunday is
forecast to propagate into the Northern Plains and phase with a
weaker northern stream impulse on Monday. Widespread
precipitation is expected south of US Highway 2 beginning Monday
afternoon through Monday night. While mostly rain is favored, some
light snow may mix in late Monday night. Little to no snow
accumulations are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)

Issued at 640 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

VFR conditions are forecast across western and central North
Dakota for the 00Z TAF period. Strong southerly winds with gusts
of 25-30kts are forecast by 17-18Z Saturday and through the
afternoon across most of the area.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...PA
LONG TERM...PA
AVIATION...NH



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