000
FXUS63 KBIS 161936
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
236 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to areas of showers continue through tonight,
  ending west into central now through this evening. The highest
  precipitation chances and best accumulation potential will be
  along and east of Highway 83.

- Cooler temperatures in the 40s and 50s are forecast for
  Wednesday, with the coldest days falling on Thursday and
  Friday when highs will range from the mid 30s to lower 40s.

- Chances for rain and snow will be possible Wednesday through
  Friday, mainly across the northern two thirds of the area
  (30-60% chance...highest chances north). Light snow
  accumulations (an inch or so) are possible across the north.

- Mainly dry conditions expected this weekend, with temperatures
  trending warmer.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Potent low pressure continues to spin over the Central Plains,
with a well defined deformation zone over the Northern Plains
along with a sfc trough extending from the main surface low
northward across the central Dakotas. Associated precipitation
remains over much of the region, and will remain so over the
next several hours. Thunder chances all but over with extensive
low stratus across the local area and little if any support
aloft.

Best precipitation chances now through this evening will slowly
end from west to east as forcing underneath the deformation zone
wanes and as the sfc trough axis pushes to the east. May still
see from a quarter inch to half an inch of moisture before
showers end overnight, with the best chances along and east of
the Highway 83 corridor. Winds remain steady out of the
northwest through the night, increasing overnight to 15-20
knots as a cold front moves through, thus do not anticipate any
issues with fog tonight/Wednesday morning.

Northern stream S/WV/closed low will usher in the above
mentioned cold FROPA tonight-Wed, with a secondary cold front
moving into the region Wed night-Thursday as the upper low
enlarges and covers the entire region by early Thursday. Expect
showers and breezy to windy conditions with the cold FROPA`s,
with a rain/snow mix or all snow once both temperatures aloft
and within the boundary layer cool enough. Looking at BUFKIT
soundings, will likely need wind headlines beginning during the
day Wednesday and likely through the day Thursday. Also looking
like a fairly large area winds will reach criteria. Did go with
a 50/50 NBM/NBM Experimental blend for winds during this period,
which better matched what was observed with the sounding data of
the NAM/GFS. Regarding any snow accumulations, best chances will
be across north where the higher POPS (50-60%) are located. NBM
24 hour snow probs put a 20-40% chance for an inch of snow along
and north of Highway 2 through Thu night, with around a 10
percent chance of 2 inches. Thus, something to keep an eye on
over the next few forecast cycles. CAA both Thursday and Friday
will see much below normal highs, ranging in the mid 30s to
lower 40s (normal for this time of year is right around 60F).

Once the low departs by this coming weekend, we transition back
to a northwesterly flow regime, which should result in
temperatures trending warmer and back closer to normal values
for mid/late April over the weekend and into early next week.
Mainly dry this weekend, with precipitation chances returning
late this weekend into Monday as a S/WV is depicted by most
guidance moving through the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Low VFR to MVFR ceilings with IFR cigs mixed in some areas for
today. Areas of rain showers continue, mainly over northern
areas of North Dakota with showers waning elsewhere for now.
Expect precipitation to continue central and east this evening,
with precipitation ending west. MVFR to IFR cigs will persist
this evening, with improving conditions west. Conditions improve
central overnight, but the probabilities for MVFR cigs remain
high for most terminals into the day Wednesday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH