Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 231956
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
256 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Latest surface analysis shows low pressure over the high plains of
wyoming with an inverted trough into far southeast Montana. Good
low level convergence along the inverted trough all the way into
far southwest ND. Cloudy over western into north central ND with
shower activity showing up over eastern Montana with some light
precipitation possibly reaching the ground over northwest ND.
Light rain reported in both Glendive and Sidney MT during the past
hour.

For the remainder of the afternoon and tonight. Strong north to
northeast winds continue over southwest ND this afternoon and
evening. Shower chances also increase over the west central and
southwest late this afternoon and expand into south central ND
tonight. Precipitation remains either rain or a mix of rain and
snow this evening. the exception may be the far southwest (higher
elevations of Bowman and Slope counties) where precip may change
over to snow quicker.

Snow accumulations are generally an inch or less, over the far
southwest. There may be a few areas with higher amounts of around
two inches in grassy areas. Most areas other than the far
southwest will have little or no snow accumulation as precip falls
as all rain, or possibly a mix of rain and snow on the back end,
with no snow accumulation.

Precipitation will taper during the morning over the far
south central. Temperatures will be cooler Tuesday for most areas.
But the northwest will be a little warmer than today with more
sunshine.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Wednesday will warm into the mid/upper 60s in most areas ahead of
the next shortwave, blend of models keeps any measurable precip
(and barely that) east of our forecast area. Will need to monitor
winds and RH as fire weather hazards may become an issue before
green-up. Strongest winds will be over the northeast half of the
CWA. A brief cool down Thursday will drop temperatures into the
mid 50s and lower 60s. Friday through the rest of the extended
temperatures generally return to the upper 60s to middle 70s.
There is still a lot of uncertainty among the medium range
guidance with an upper trough deepening and approaching the state
late in the forecast period. GFS is much quicker/stronger with the
initial wave moving through the area Saturday. EC/GEM are slower
with the western low before ejecting into the plains and any
specific details remain murky at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Low pressure developing over southeastern Montana will increase
precipitation chances over western and central North Dakota
through the afternoon and overnight hours. Breezy northerly winds
will increase across the southwest and south central as the low
approaches, with the strongest gusts over KDIK and KBIS from late
afternoon through early Tuesday morning. Rain showers and lowering
ceilings will bring MFVR conditions, mainly over KDIK and KBIS
after 00z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH



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