Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 151731
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1231 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Temperatures have been a bit slow to respond this morning but with
full sunshine expected most areas this afternoon will stick with
our current forecast temperatures.

UPDATE Issued at 926 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Current forecast remains on track. Made some minor tweaks to sky
cover. Populated latest sensible weather elements and interpolated
to late morning values.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

Issued at 344 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Warmer but continued well below seasonal temperatures highlights
the short term period.

Currently, large upper level low continues to bring severe winter
weather to the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Western Great
Lakes region. Further west, upper level ridge is building from the
Desert Southwest northeast into the Northern High Plains. Surface
ridge of high pressure extends from southern Manitoba south-
southwest across the central Dakotas. Return flow has developed
along to west of the ridge axis resulting in milder temperatures
over my west compared to 24 hours ago.

Upper low to our southeast slowly pushes east allowing ridging
into the Northern Plains today and tonight. Return flow develops
area wide and strengthens as the sfc ridge develops into the
eastern Dakotas. Notable temperature gradient with highs in the
40s today west into far south central west of the ridge and 30s
east, with overnight lows tonight 20s west and teens east.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

Issued at 344 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Will be watching two upper level features in the long term
period.

Upper level ridge continues to build over the region into Monday,
resulting in dry weather and a continued moderation in
temperatures. Highs Monday will be in the 40s area wide along with
a few 50s west.

Long wave trough/upper low pushes onshore across the western
CONUS Sunday night, then advances east into the Rockies Monday
night. There remains elevated uncertainty how this trough will
evolve as it crosses the Rockies into the plains on Tuesday. The
00Z ECMWF morphs into a split flow and develops a closed low
pressure system over the Central Plains keeping the heavier QPF to
our south, though does bring a period of moderate QPF (quarter
inch) to western ND along an inverted sfc trough. The 00Z GFS
still indicates the trough becoming negatively tilted across the
region but has also started showing sign of split flow developing
and does develop a southern stream low to our south/southeast
Tuesday night. Its depiction of an inverted trough is farther east
over central ND. Still considerable differences in models so will
again maintain blended POPs for this system with rain or snow
chances across the Northern Plains late Monday night ending
during the day Wednesday.

Blended models again showed some mixed precipitation late Monday
night into Tuesday morning over western ND. With models backing
off on QPF during this time frame and lack of moisture it does
appear this period will be mainly dry. BUFKIT analysis also
strongly suggests surface temperatures warming across the west
after midnight for early Tuesday morning which CONSMOS also shows.
Thinking any mixed precip will be short-lived and have minimal
impacts at best. Will keep a mention but I foresee mixed precip
to be removed entirely in future forecast updates unless something
changes.

Any snow during the day Tuesday will melt on contact thanks to
warm ground temperatures and strong solar energy. Depending on
eventual precipitation, do expect some light accumulations
Tuesday evening through Wed morning, where an inch or maybe two of
wet snow on grassy surfaces could result. Some travel impacts may
also develop Tue night as surface temperatures drop below
freezing.

Dry weather follows on Thursday as ridging attempts to rebuild.
This is followed by another closed low moving out of the
central/southern Rockies Friday/Friday night (GFS and ECMWF).
Will be interesting to see what path this third potential mid-
latitude cyclone takes late next week into the following weekend,
but models have consistently kept it well to our south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the 18Z TAF period. Strong
southeast winds develop over far western North Dakota Monday
afternoon. Winds aloft are nearly unidirectional compared to the
surface winds. Surface winds don`t drop off either in the far west
so LLWS is just barely reaching 30 knots for just a short period
around 12 UTC Monday. Will mention this to the evening shift but
will not include in the KISN TAF at this time.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH



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