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Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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FWSBIS

Spot Forecast for Long Lake NWR A-3...USFWS
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
317 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on April 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Near critical fire weather conditions.
Today will be very warm with highs in the upper 70s.
Minimum relative humidities will be the low 20s, with a
front moving through. The front will move through this afternoon
and will turn winds to the northwest and gust near 25mph after 5pm.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 79.
Min humidity........27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 25 mph in the late afternoon.
Mixing height.......5800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 20 mph shifting to the northwest
                    25 mph late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (85400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........39  32  28  20  16  35  24  12  5   3
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10  0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............44  49  57  62  67  72  74  76  79  77
RH..............60  56  49  44  38  35  31  30  29  29
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  W   NW  N   N   N   N   NW
20 FT wind spd..7   7   5   5   5   6   8   10  13  16
20 FT wind gust.10  10  9   8   9  10   11  13  16  19
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.4 2.6 4.1 5.1 5.7 5.8
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  W   NW  NW  N   N   N   NW  NW
Transp wind spd.15  15  11  11  10  16  18  19  20  22
Haines index....6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5   4   4
Dispr kt-ft/1K..4   4   5   9   10  32  57  77  85  81

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 42.
Max humidity........70 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 8 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (85900 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (1900 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky (%).........19        8         11        6
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0         0         0         0
Chc of pcpn (%).0         10        10        0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............75        62        54        49
RH..............29        44        54        62
20 FT wind......NW 12G13  N 9G10    N 6G9     NW 5G9
Mix hgt (ft)....5700      700       400       300
Transport wind..NW 17     N 10      N 7       NE 8
Haines index....3         4         4         5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..86        6         2         2

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northeast around 5 mph in
                    the late morning and early afternoon, then
                    shifting to the east 5 to 6 mph late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......6100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 7 to 8 mph shifting to the west around 9
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1700 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (55600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
Sky (%).........5            8            19
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE         NONE         NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0            0            0
Chc of pcpn (%).0            0            10
LAL.............1            1            1
Temp............43           55           67
RH..............72           49           30
20 FT wind......N 4G6        NE 5G8       E 5G7
Mix hgt (ft)....300          1200         5500
Transport wind..N 7          N 7          NW 12
Haines index....5            5            5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..2            7            55

$$
Forecaster...SMITH
Requested by...Dustin Mireles
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410578.0/BIS
.DELDT 04/13/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL dustin_mireles@fws.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
