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Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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FNUS73 KBIS 131318
FWSBIS

Spot Forecast for Long Lake NWR 6_7...USFWS
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
818 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on April 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

While we should see a mostly sunny day at the burn site today,
there will be some scattered mid to high clouds floating around.
It will be much warmer today than in previous days with a high
near 79. It will also be fairly dry today with humidity dropping
as low as 24 percent in the afternoon. Winds will generally be
light and variable this morning, but a weak cold front will come
through the region this afternoon, shifting the winds to out of the
northwest. Winds may become pretty breezy by mid to late
afternoon, maxing out around 20 mph sustained. While there could
be a few showers in the vicinity of the burn site by late
afternoon or early evening, most of this activity should remain
well do the east and chances remain low at around 10 percent.

Winds will diminish tonight and we will see humidity recover to
around 70 percent with a low around 42. For tomorrow, it will be a
bit cooler but still mild with a high near 70. Afternoon humidity
will dip to around 25 percent but winds should be light and
variable through the day.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 79.
Min humidity........24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northwest 5 to 13 mph in
                    the afternoon, then increasing up to around 20 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......6900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 10 mph increasing to northwest 20 to
                    22 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5400 knot-ft) in the morning
                    increasing to good (98100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to very good (113900
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........28  36  42  40  47  48  22  12
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............55  61  67  72  74  75  76  75
RH..............49  42  37  30  26  25  24  24
20 FT wind dir..SW  W   NW  N   NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..3   4   5   6   9   13  15  19
20 FT wind gust.10  10  9   10  11  15  19  23
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 1.2 1.4 3.1 4.3 6.1 6.7 6.9
Transp wind dir.W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.9   10  10  14  15  18  20  22
Haines index....6   6   6   6   6   5   5   5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..5   11  13  38  56  98  114 131

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 42.
Max humidity........70 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds to around 20 mph early decreasing to
                    5 to 6 mph after 3 am.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 14 to 23 mph shifting to the north 8
                    to 13 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (125300 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to good (72200 knot-ft) late in the
                    night decreasing to poor (2400 knot-ft) early
                    in the evening.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........24  11  11  8   8   7   7   5   5   5   3   3
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).10  0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............75  71  66  61  58  55  53  51  50  48  45  44
RH..............26  31  37  44  48  51  50  52  54  58  65  68
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..20  16  12   8   8   9   9   8   7   7   6   5
20 FT wind gust.24  19  15  12  12  12  13  12  10  10  9   8
Mix hgt (kft)...6.3 4.2 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.23  20  16  14  14  14  13  13  12  12  10  8
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4
Dispr kt-ft/1K..125 72  12  7   6   6   5   5   4   4   3   2

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds, generally out of the south
                    up to 6 mph.
Mixing height.......4900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 6 to 8 mph in the morning shifting to the
                    the west around 8 mph early in the
                    afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
Sky (%).........4            14           24
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE         NONE         NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0            0            0
Chc of pcpn (%).0            0            10
LAL.............1            1            1
Temp............43           54           66
RH..............67           50           29
20 FT wind......N 4G6        S 5G7        W 3G5
Mix hgt (ft)....300          1200         4900
Transport wind..N 8          SE 6         W 8
Haines index....4            4            4
Dispr kt-ft/1K..2            6            35

$$
Forecaster...HARGROVE
Requested by...Dustin Mireles
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410605.0/BIS
.DELDT 04/13/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL dustin_mireles@fws.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
