Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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706 FXUS64 KBMX 291931 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 231 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1234 PM CDT MON APR 29 2024 A weak line of showers continues to inch its way towards the AL/MS state line in advance of a diffuse cold front over the ArkLaTex. This weakening activity is progged to move into western portions of the area late this afternoon and into the evening hours, but for most of the afternoon we`ll experience a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Poor mid-level lapse rates will limit the instability in the atmosphere and shear values will be weak, so severe storms are not expected. However, models are indicating an increase in rainfall coverage overnight as the activity gets increased upper-level support with the passage of the mid-level shortwave trough. The corridor of showers and occasional thunderstorms will be focused east of I-65 by tomorrow morning, gradually shifting into Georgia through the afternoon as the trough moves towards the Mid-Atlantic region. Some spots may get very little rain while other locations may see 1 to 2 inches of accumulation, but the highest amounts are expected in the northern portions of the area. Cloud cover should gradually diminish west to east during the day with temperatures ranging from the lower 80s southwest to mid 70s northeast. 86/Martin && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 211 PM CDT MON APR 29 2024 The rain should be out of east Alabama by sunset Tuesday. There will be a slight change in the air mass as surface winds become northerly on Wednesday. The humidity will drop some but afternoon temperatures will warm into the middle and upper 80s. Weak upper ridging Wednesday and Thursday will result in very warm afternoon temperatures with no rainfall. Some areas across south Alabama may reach 90 degrees on Thursday. A northern stream short wave will push a trof axis into Alabama Friday, which then stalls out over Alabama Saturday and Sunday. Scattered mostly diurnal storms expected Friday through Sunday. 58/rose && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM CDT MON APR 29 2024 VFR conditions continue this afternoon but SHRA will overspread the area this evening as a shortwave trough moves across the region. Instability will be limited overnight, but some TSRA may affect the terminals as well. This activity will result in IFR/MVFR ceilings and some visibility impacts. Flight conditions will improve west to east late in this period as the activity shifts east into Georgia. Southerly winds will be breezy at times this afternoon with gusts of 15 to 20 kts. 86/Martin && .FIRE WEATHER... A very good chance of wetting rain overnight and into Tuesday morning. The rain should exit east Alabama Tuesday afternoon. 20 foot winds will be south at 5-7 mph overnight, becoming west 6-8 mph on Tuesday. Rain free conditions Wednesday and Thursday with RH values dropping into the 30s. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 60 77 55 84 / 90 70 0 0 Anniston 62 77 57 84 / 70 70 0 0 Birmingham 63 78 59 85 / 90 60 0 0 Tuscaloosa 64 81 58 87 / 90 40 0 0 Calera 63 78 59 84 / 90 60 0 0 Auburn 64 77 60 83 / 40 60 10 0 Montgomery 64 81 60 87 / 60 60 0 0 Troy 62 80 61 87 / 40 60 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...86 LONG TERM....58/rose AVIATION...86