National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KBRO 220620 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
120 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Elevated instability, weak mid-level frontogenesis, weak
overrunning/isentropic upglide, and deep moisture to 600-650 mb will
be sufficient to keep precipitation in the forecast for tonight.
Could see a few thunderstorms as well. Generally went with slight
chance to chance POPs for the CWA for tonight with the highest POPs
across the populated RGV.  This is generally in line with most CAM
and synoptic scale guidance. Temperature advection has nearly ended
behind the cold front which pushed through earlier this morning.
Thick cloud cover will tend to limit diurnal cooling tonight.
However we are still anticipating upper 50s for most of the Northern
Ranchlands and the Upper Valley with lower to mid 60s elsewhere
except upper 60s along the islands.

A mid/upper closed low near Baja California presently will track
across our CWA on Mon albeit it will be shearing apart.  This
additional dynamical forcing and the still deep amount of moisture
to around 600-650 mb will warrant another round of precipitation on
Mon.  Once again, we could be looking at a few embedded
thunderstorms as well given the elevated instability.  NBM POPs were
too low for Mon and raised these to the 20-40% level for the entire
CWA.  Again, the highest POPs were across the populated RGV. Most of
the precipitation is expected to end from west to east by Mon
evening as the closed low/shortwave moves east of the CWA.  Other
than perhaps a brief sprinkle or some patchy drizzle, conditions
should remain mostly dry for Mon night.

Highs on Mon will remain well below normal by around 10-15 degrees
given the thick cloud cover and post-frontal airmass remaining in
place. A little bit of moderation but still cooler than normal
overnight lows is expected on Mon night.

A High Risk of Rip Currents will remain through Monday given the
persistent large seas and long periods.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

A building mid-level ridge passing over Texas Tuesday through
Thursday followed by a developing large scale upper trough over
the western third of the CONUS will result in a warming trend
along with increasing southerly winds. Latest deterministic and
ensemble model trends are on board with temperatures climbing from
slightly below normal Tuesday, at normal Wed and Thurs to well
above normal Friday through next weekend. This will push daytime
maximums well into the 90s inland with lower to mid 80s at the
beach. Low temperatures look to rise into the lower to mid 70s
through the week. No fronts are on the horizon with the upper
troughs remaining well to west or passing well north of Deep South
Texas. Southerly flow looks to be on the increase as the pressure
gradient tightens between surface ridge over the Gulf and a
series of low pressure areas along the Sierra Madre through the
Southern and Central Plains. Strongest winds at this time look to
occur Thursday through Sunday when afternoon gusts could reach
35-40 mph mainly over the typical windy locations of the Lower
RGV.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Light north to northeast winds with some passing low cloud decks
prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. MVFR/IFR
ceilings are expected to develop overnight and linger through most
of today. Scattered showers are expected throughout the day as an
upper level system approaches from the west. Isolated TSRA cannot
be ruled out, but confidence in location and timing is too low to
mention at this time. Otherwise, north winds will gradually shift
to the northeast through the afternoon with speeds generally
below 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Tonight through Monday night...Strong N/NE winds and building seas
will maintain Small Craft Advisory conditions through this evening
across the Laguna Madre and through Mon morning for the remainder of
the coastal waters.  Winds and seas will peak over the next several
hours and then slowly diminish and subside as the gradient and CAA
weaken.  This weakening trend will persist through the remainder of
the short-term forecast period as high pressure slowly shifts
eastward.  Onshore flow will begin developing late in the day on Mon
as a result.

Tuesday through Sunday: The Lower Texas coastal waters can expected
improving conditions Tuesday and Wednesday as surface high
pressure gradual tracks eastward and mid-level high pressure
remains over Texas. Pressure gradient begins to tighten Thursday
continuing to strengthen Friday and next weekend as the
interaction between modest surface ridge over the Gulf of Mexico
and a series of low pressure area over NE Mexico and the Southern
Plains develops. Light to moderate southeast winds return to the
coastal waters Tuesday and Wednesday with fresh to occasional
strong onshore flow Thursday through Sunday. Mariners can expect
seas to remain slight to moderate through midweek before
increasing over the weekend. Periodic Small Craft Advisories for
all or portions of the Lower Texas coastal waters Thursday through
Sunday are possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             66  82  72  84 /  10  10   0  10
HARLINGEN               62  83  69  86 /   0  10   0  10
MCALLEN                 63  84  72  87 /   0  10   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         61  83  70  88 /   0  10   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      69  78  73  78 /  10  10   0  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     66  81  71  83 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ451-454-
     455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...80-MB
LONG TERM....59-GB
AVIATION...63-KC