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000
FXUS64 KBRO 181753
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1253 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Key messages:
- General to marginal severe weather threat later today for western
sections.
- Warmer than average.

High pressure will continue to dominate in the lower levels,
providing a steady southeast onshore flow. At 500 mb, the pattern
will be mostly zonal, but with a modest southwest flow ahead of a
short wave trough farther west. SPC included portions of the RGV
Plains, and Mid and Upper Valley in a Day 1 general tstorm outlook,
and included Zapata County in a marginal risk of severe weather
outlook. While a front moves south into Central Texas today,
igniting convection to our north, the threat to deep South Texas and
the RGV will likely come from the west (Sierra Madre Oriental
foothills). These storms, if they become strong, generally bring a
large hail and strong, potentially damaging wind threat. The window
for this threat, if convection drifts east toward and across the Rio
Grande, will be this afternoon to evening. The NBM was not carrying
much in the way convection, so introduced a mention. Skies will
remain mostly cloudy with moderate southeast winds and high temps
from the upper 80s east to the upper 90s west. Moderate risk of rip
currents.

Tonight will remain mostly cloudy with low temperatures in the lower
to mid 70s. Barring any lingering convection. The night should be
relatively calm. The severe weather threat for Friday will lie to
out north along the slowly approaching cold front. The models are
currently not bullish on precip for the CWA on Friday, although some
convection could develop once more over the Sierra Madre Oriental
front range to the west. The grids remain virtually barren for over-
area pops on Friday right now. High temps will again be above
average on Friday with a range similar to that expected today, under
mostly cloudy skies and moderate southeast winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A nearly zonal flow aloft combined with surface high pressure will
maintain above normal temperatures and generally rain-free
conditions over the region Friday night and Saturday. Friday night
will be mild with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s under mostly
cloudy skies. Another very warm to hot day is expected on Saturday
with highs ranging from the 70s at the beaches, the mid to upper 80s
near the coast and the low to mid 90s elsewhere.

The weather pattern begins to change Saturday night with the
approach and passage of a weak cold front. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of
the frontal boundary. Convection is forecast to develop and move
into Rio Grande Plains and the northern Ranchlands Saturday evening
then across the Rio Grande Valley early Sunday morning.

In the wake of the front, cooler and drier air will filter into the
region Sunday and Monday with below normal temperatures. Highs on
Sunday will generally range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s
under cloudy skies. Lows Sunday night are expected to fall into the
60s areawide. Monday will be slightly cooler than Sunday with highs
in the 70s as easterly flow continues. The combination of an upper
level disturbance and increasing moisture may support lingering
isolated to scattered rain chances Sunday into Monday. Warmer
temperatures return Tuesday as surface high pressure slides eastward
and the frontal boundary lifts northward Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

As the afternoon progresses, all airports are expected to become
broken VFR along with a breezy southeasterly wind continuing till
this evening and scattered low levels clouds persisting at KBRO.
Around sunset, low level clouds will increase a scattered MVFR/IFR
cloud deck at KBRO and KMFE. Meanwhile, vicinity showers are
possible at KMFE after sunset and into the earliest hours Friday.
Overnight, MVFR ceilings will continue, though a brief period of
IFR ceilings is expected for KBRO till just after sunrise.
Throughout Friday morning, ceilings will dissipate as they rise
into VFR category, but remain broken MVFR category for KBRO
through the rest of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 329 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Today through Friday...Moderate southeast winds turning fresh on the
Laguna Madre in the afternoons. Small craft should exercise caution
then and there. Moderate seas.

Friday night through Wednesday...Generally favorable conditions are
expected to prevail through much of the period with light to
moderate winds and low to moderate seas. However, the passage of a
weak cold front Sunday morning may lead to Exercise Caution
conditions Sunday into Sunday night due to elevated winds. Isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Saturday
night and Sunday with the passage of the front. Rain chances may
linger Sunday night into Monday with the passage of an upper level
disturbance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             74  89  74  87 /  10   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               72  91  73  90 /  10   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 74  94  75  92 /  20   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         73  95  73  94 /  20   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      73  79  74  79 /  10   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     73  86  73  85 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54-BHM
LONG TERM....63-KC
AVIATION...22-Garcia/65-Irish