811
FXUS61 KBTV 090739
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
339 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers with some embedded thunderstorms will
continue this afternoon. Some small hail and gusty winds are
possible within thunderstorms. The thunderstorm threat will come
to an end this evening, and the remainder of the night will be
damp and cloudy with some drizzle. The rest of the week into
early next week will see at least chances for showers continue
each day as we enter into a wet and unsettled weather pattern.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 155 AM EDT Thursday...Forecast is in good shape early
this morning. Boosted sky cover for most areas to overcast with
only localized clearing in eastern Windsor County and southern
St. Lawrence County at this time and little improvement through
the overnight. Also added some higher gusts of 20-25 MPH in the
Champlain Valley and much of central Vermont with breezy
north/northwest winds likely continuing in the cold air
advection pattern. These winds look to only gradually diminish
towards daybreak.

Previous discussion...A cold front will move south through the
area tonight, though impacts will be restricted to just some low
clouds and drizzle. Forecast soundings suggest a layer of low-
level moisture will become trapped under a mid-level inversion,
resulting in a dreary night with low stratus, mist, and drizzle.
Additional shortwave energy moving through Thursday will keep
low clouds around and have maintained a few light showers in the
forecast. Some areas may see low clouds erode during the
afternoon, leading to a few peaks of sunshine, but overall
looking at predominantly mostly cloudy skies. Very little change
in the overall pattern going into Thursday night, so will again
expect lowering stratus clouds through the night especially in
higher terrain. Low temperatures will be in the 40s both tonight
and Thursday night, and high temperatures Thursday will be in
the 50s to around 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 329 AM EDT Thursday...The general idea remains the same
for the short term, with deepening mid/upper lvl trof and best
s/w forcing passing to our south. However, given mid/upper lvl
trof axis directly overhead and associated pocket of enhanced
mid lvl moisture, the idea of scattered showers on Sat/Sat Night
looks reasonable. Sounding data shows weak instability
lingering into the evening hours, along with favorable 850 to
700mb moisture profiles, so have continued with chc pops into
the evening hours. Best probability of light measurable qpf wl
be over the higher trrn, especially northern NY on Sat aftn into
the evening hours. Not anticipating a washout like last Sunday,
but if you have outdoor plans, especially in the aftn/evening
plan for some light showers in the area. Lows mainly in the 40s
with highs upper 50s to mid 60s for the short term.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 329 AM EDT Thursday...The core of the coldest air aloft
with 500mb temps near -25C is directly overhead on Sunday, which
combined with additional s/w energy wl produce more scattered
hit and miss type showers. Soundings try to hint at some drier
air advecting into the region on north/northeast winds,
especially acrs the NEK, but given cooling aloft and some weak
sfc heating, thinking instability driven showers are possible.
Not anticipating an all day rain or washout at this time. Once
again the highest probabilities look to be acrs the higher trrn
of northern NY and central/southern Greens. Progged 850mb temps
on Sunday hover near 0C, which adding a generous 15C would
support highs only in the upper 40s to mid/upper 50s warmest
valleys. If more sun develops and 850mb temps modify in upcoming
model guidance, highs could easily be in the mid 60s,
especially with mid May sun angle. Plenty of uncertainty on
timing and magnitude of next mid/upper lvl trof development and
associated track of sfc low pres for early to mid week. Have
continued with chc pops almost daily as timing of individual
features in a rather complex mid/upper lvl pattern is very
challenging. Temps remain at or slightly below seasonable
normals for mid May with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s,
with a slight warming trend toward mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...Mix of MVFR and IFR ceilings persist
through the next 4 to 8 hours or so in northwest flow in the
wake of a cold front, with VFR conditions expected thereafter.
Somewhat uncertain flight categories with cloud bases near 1000
feet at several sites including RUT, BTV, SLK, EFK, and MPV,
with probabilities of IFR conditions generally decreasing only
slightly with time, and faster between 09Z and 12Z as low
clouds mix out after sunrise. NW winds will mostly be 10 knots
or less, with some gusts at PBG and BTV near 20 knots through
about 10Z, and trend north/northeasterly after 18Z.


Outlook...

Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Duell
NEAR TERM...Duell/Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Kutikoff/Neiles