465
FXUS62 KCAE 020524
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
124 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warm conditions will continue through Thursday as
surface high pressure and upper level ridging build back into
the area. Rain chances start to increase Friday as southwesterly
low level flow increases and steadily pushes moisture into the
region. Showers and thunderstorms are then likely over the
weekend as a series of weak disturbances push across the area
and moisture continues to build.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Line of cu associated with coastal sea breeze can be seen
clearly on vis satellite moving inland. This has been enough to
set off a few isolated thunderstorms near the coast where there
is deeper moisture and still a touch of cyclonic flow aloft.
However, dry mid to upper levels is there to great the boundary
as it moves into the southeasternmost midlands and CSRA, so it
will be difficult to see much in the way of shower activity this
evening in the CWA.

Since there is low level moisture in the southeastern half of
the CWA, and winds are expected to be light all night, I think
some fog is in the offing once we get past midnight. I have
introduced patchy fog for many areas in the forecast for late
tonight and early Thursday morning, with areas of fog in the
southeast where the moisture will be a bit deeper on the
oceanward side of the decaying sea breeze.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday and Thursday night: Quiet and dry conditions are
expected for Thursday and Thursday night as ridging aloft builds
and surface high pressure builds just offshore. As a result,
afternoon highs will likely be a few degrees warmer than
Wednesday, with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s.
Seasonably mild overnight lows can also be expected as
temperatures drop into the lower 60s.

Friday and Friday night: The upper ridge begins to flatten while
the axis shifts offshore. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough is
forecast to move toward the area and PWAT levels increase during
the day to over 1.5". This combination brings an increasing
chance of afternoon showers and maybe thunderstorms, mainly for
the western portions of the forecast area. CAPE values are
forecast to be on the lower side (100-200 J/kg) and shear values
are forecast to be around 15 kts, so the severe weather threat
is very low. Diurnal temperatures should be similar to Thursday
as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A more active, summer-like pattern looks to be setting up for
the weekend and into the first part of next week. The upper
trough is forecast to begin weakening through the weekend with a
series of shortwaves moving through the Southeast. These
shortwaves bring the chance for daily (mainly) afternoon showers
and thunderstorms into the early part of next week. Low-level
flow is expected to become southwest, bringing additional
moisture to the region. As a result, the risk for stronger
storms increases for each afternoon as the instability gradually
increases each day.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Restrictions in fog possible toward morning. Highest probability
at OGB.

Pressure ridge across the area. Mainly clear sky at 06z other
than some very thin high clouds in east central GA. Slightly
drier air from north Ga into the CSRA near the AGS/DNL
terminals. A sea breeze front has moved into central SC and dew
points have come up a bit from OGB to CAE. Some patchy fog
possible toward morning with shallow low-level moisture in
place/near calm winds, especially across eastern SC. Cross-over
temps from yesterday were relatively low but sea breeze front
may be contribute to more of a fog threat. The latest Lamp
guidance has decreased the threat at CAE and AGS areas, but
suggests a higher probability at OGB. Will go with MVFR fog at
CAE and AGS area terminals near 12z with the possibility of IFR
for a brief period at CAE and CUB. LIFR visibility at OGB. After
the fog lifts, expect scattered cumulus in the afternoon
especially in eastern SC associated with sea breeze. Winds light
and variable early then favoring southeast 5 to 10 knots in the
afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Late night/early morning fog and stratus
possible through the period. Increased potential for showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon through Monday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$