Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
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915 FXUS62 KCAE 010536 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 136 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A shortwave trough aloft will push through the area Tuesday and bring scattered showers-storms in the afternoon and evening. Expect drier, warmer weather for Thursday and Friday with highs back in the mid to upper 80s. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase for the weekend as low level moisture increases. There will be at least a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms through the end of the long term with above normal temperatures favored. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Last of the convection has moved south and east of the CWA. Folks can still probably see a little lightning if they look to the southeast, but that should be winding down shortly. Will still have some patchy showers that should linger around overnight as the upper disturbance passes across, but they won`t drop much in the way of precipitation. Temperatures will gradually cool overnight to lows within a few degrees of 60 by sunrise. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... An upper level ridge will build into the Southeast on Wednesday. Drier air will also move into the area from the west with PWAT values around 1 inch. Expect isolated to scattered showers along the coastal plain and into the eastern Midlands where low level moisture is higher. The severe weather threat is low given the dry air aloft hindering growth and warmer temps aloft. A downslope component to the wind fields will help push temps back above average, in the mid to upper 80s. As we move into Thursday, broad ridging will deepen across the SE CONUS and the ridge axis will set up nearly directly overhead. So while the dry northwest flow will weaken, general subsidence will continue and skies will remain mostly clear again Thursday. Thursday`s highs will be in the mid to upper 80s. As surface high pressure strengthens offshore, surface winds will turn more out of the east in the afternoon and allow dew points to push back into the 60`s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The WPC cluster analysis page shows that most ensemble members keep broad ridging in place through the long term, however not as amplified as Thursday and Friday. This will open up the synoptic pattern to a series of weak shortwaves sliding to our northwest starting this weekend through the end of the period. Ensembles generally favor an increase in atmospheric moisture over the weekend with PWAT values around the 90th percentile. This pattern of shortwaves riding over broad ridging and above normal PWATs favor at least a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day of the long term with highest PoPs over the weekend when atmospheric moisture is expected to be highest. Thunderstorms in general will be favored during the afternoon hours but could fall outside the typical diurnal period if shortwave troughs cross the region outside of peak heating. Above average temperatures are likely through much of the long term. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LIFR/IFR conditions expected early this morning as fog and stratus develops across the region. Upper level trough moving east of the area early this morning. Satellite showing some clearing upstream to the west behind the trough. This clearing aloft will spread across the region overnight. With low level moisture in place and near calm winds, expect widespread fog/stratus to develop. Confidence is relatively high with satellite guidance suggesting a high probability of restrictions along with the latest lamp/HRRR. Low clouds and fog should lift by 14z-15z with scattered cumulus. Winds will shift to northwest to north behind the trough less than 10 knots. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Some late night/early morning fog/ stratus possible. Increasing moisture, some upper energy, and a surface boundary expected to provide a chance of showers and thunderstorms, and associated restrictions, Fri thru Sun. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$