933
FXUS62 KCAE 080908
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
508 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Potential for strong to severe storms Wednesday through
Thursday night ahead of an approaching cold front. Drier
conditions return for the weekend. Expect generally above
average temperatures through the latter half of the week before
transitioning to near or slightly below average during the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The axis of an upper level ridge will move over the forecast
area today with a weak shortwave moving over top of the ridge in
the late afternoon and early evening. SW, low-level flow will
advect moisture into the Southeast, pooling near a convergence
boundary along the NC/SC border. Broad ridging should largely
suppress convection over the forecast area. However convection
may be able to develop to the north, further away from the
ridge, as the shortwave moves through in the afternoon. CAMs are
in decent agreement in the location of convective initiation
being in the NC/SC Piedmont, growing upscale as it moves SE
through the late afternoon and evening.

Moderate instability, moderate deep layer shear, and low wet-
bulb zero heights will be supportive of large hail and damaging
winds in the Carolinas. As the air mass destabilizes in the
afternoon median mixed layer CAPE values from the SREF are
around 2000 J/kg. 0-6km shear values of 25 to 30 kts will be
supportive of organized convection. The HRRR has been consistent
showing initial convection beginning in central NC with cold
pool driven convection pushing into the northern Midlands during
the afternoon. DCAPE values of 1000 to 1200 J/kg and WBZ
heights of around 10000 ft are favorable for swaths of damaging
winds and large hail if thunderstorms develop. The tornado
threat is lower given the lack of helicity and weaker 0-1km
shear, but can`t be ruled out.

Tonight, there could be additional rounds of showers and
thunderstorms as warm, moist advection strengthens over the
region. Divergence aloft also becomes more favorable as a jet
moves to our north tonight. Confidence in severe weather during
the overnight period is low. The warm advection leads to a near-
surface inversion which could prevent winds from mixing to the
surface despite the expected larger number of storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Potential for multiple rounds of strong to severe storms as
MCS`s move through the southeastern States. SPC continues to
show the entire forecast area in a Slight Risk Thursday and
Thursday night, with the main threat being damaging winds.
However large hail and even an isolated tornado can not be
completely ruled out.

Still plenty of uncertainty through the period, due to a warm
nose aloft to start off the day Thursday. Guidance does show the
potential for a decaying MCS to be moving into the northern
Midlands during the morning to start off the day Thursday, which
would then lay down a surface outflow boundary across the
forecast area. This then becomes the primary focus for
additional MCS development across the Central Midlands and CSRA
during the afternoon. , and then into the overnight hours on
Thursday night. Convective models still vary in regards to
overall coverage with each potential system, along with even the
placement and movement of them. This has much to do with the
strength of the warm nose, and if/when if finally weakens enough
to aid in convection. So have a low confidence in overall
coverage and movement, but a moderate to high confidence that
any storms that develop with have the potential to become severe
as they track across the cwa. Temperatures remaining above
normal, but do begin to cool slightly from the hot readings of
the past few days.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cold front that has been driving a good portion of the
convection west of the region will finally begin to push into
and through the cwa on Friday. Lingering showers and storms will
remain possible early in the day, with the CSRA still having a
potential for strong to severe storms again Friday afternoon
with a system moving out of central GA through the morning. By
late Friday afternoon, drier air finally begins to push into the
cwa, and should see a drying trend into Friday night. Cooler
and drier weather then should dominate into the weekend behind
the front. Rain chances will then begin to increase again Monday
and Tuesday as moisture returns.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Early this morning, a 25 knot low level jet should help keep
the boundary layer mixed and surface winds in the 3 to 5 knot
range hindering fog development.

SW winds should pick up to around 10 knots by 15Z with gusts up
to 20 kts through the afternoon. Strong thunderstorms may
develop this afternoon but are more likely than not to remain
north of the terminals. Tonight, thunderstorm coverage may
actually increase as moisture increases. There could be periods
of storms and reduced visibility at the TAF sites overnight, but
confidence is too low to include at this time. SSW Winds should
stay up overnight around 5 kts.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Active weather continues Thursday
with severe thunderstorms possible. Then expect another day of
convection and associated restrictions on Friday. Drier weather
likely for this weekend.&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$